Another deadline domino fell Sunday evening, and it gives the Giants a pretty clean read on what Robbie Ray might bring back.
The Toronto Blue Jays sent former SF Giants starter Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs for two prospects, a deal that says plenty about how clubs are valuing expiring pitching contracts right now. Gausman, 35, is in the last year of the five-year, $110 million contract he signed with Toronto after his strong two-season run in San Francisco. And because Ray has been tracking on a similar path since 2021, the return Toronto got could end up looking a lot like the kind of package the Giants should expect if they move their left-hander.
Gausman’s Giants chapter started in 2020, a year that was uneven for him. He came back on a one-year deal for 2021 and took off. He made his first All-Star team, finished sixth in Cy Young voting, and formed a co-ace pairing with Logan Webb that helped drive the club to a franchise-record 107 wins.
He also wanted to stay. Gausman liked San Francisco and made it clear he wanted another shot with the Giants, but Farhan Zaidi wasn’t willing to meet the contract length it would have taken to keep him.
He left for Toronto in free agency, and that call has only aged worse. Gausman has flourished with the Blue Jays, logging at least 31 starts in each of the past four seasons and putting together two top-10 Cy Young finishes, plus a trip to the World Series last fall.
Since he departed, the Giants have missed the playoffs every year.
Toronto’s move was about maximizing whatever value was left in a disappointing season. According to the report, the Jays landed Ty Southisene and Brett Bateman, who MLB Pipeline ranks as the Cubs’ 13th- and 21st-best prospects.
That return matters for San Francisco because it helps frame the Robbie Ray market. As Jeff Young noted, the package for Gausman should be a useful benchmark for what the Giants can get for Ray. Ray’s ERA is more than a run better than Gausman’s, but the underlying indicators tell a different story: his expected numbers are actually a bit higher, and he projects to be about the same or slightly worse the rest of the way.
The Giants have already been warned not to expect a huge haul, and this trade backs that up. Two prospects sitting somewhere in the 15-to-25 range in a system would still count as a good return for Ray, especially with his age and the questions teams have about how real his performance is. His second-half drop last year after an All-Star nod did not help, and he carries a 4.36 FIP this season.
There is still some selling power in the profile, though. Ray has been excellent lately, posting a 1.09 ERA and 3.04 FIP over his last eight starts. That stretch has helped rebuild some value, just not enough to push his market far beyond what Gausman fetched.
The biggest wrinkle is the type of return. Toronto got two position players, while the Giants are expected to lean toward pitching in their deadline deals. Last week, I wrote about a few pitching prospects they could target, though two of the arms mentioned checked in at eighth and tenth in their systems, which may be a bit rich given the way this market is shaping up.
San Francisco’s preference showed up almost immediately after the Gausman deal, when the Giants sent Tyler Mahle to Atlanta for right-handed reliever Anthony Molina. With less than 24 hours left before Monday’s deadline, Buster Posey and the front office are now on the clock, trying to squeeze as much prospect value as they can from contenders who need help.
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Giants Finally Have A Willy Adames Trade Opening To Watch
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Adames gives San Francisco a name to watch because he is one of the few players on the roster who could alter the clubs financial picture in a meaningful way. Still, any deal would come with real hurdles, including the fact that he can control where he goes, and his contract runs deep into the future, which makes this more of a possibility than a straightforward trade fit. [Read more 🡒]