The San Francisco Giants are shaping up as one of the clearer sellers at the 2026 MLB trade deadline, and that puts a few names squarely in the spotlight. Robbie Ray and Luis Arraez stand out as the most likely pieces to move this summer, with both players in the final year of their contracts and set to reach free agency after the 2026 season.
But CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa is calling for a twist that would catch plenty of people off guard. Instead of dealing Arraez, Axisa predicts the Giants will keep him and work out an extension.
“The Giants will extend Luis Arraez, not trade him," Axisa predicts. "...
I boldly predict that president of baseball operations Buster Posey will pivot and instead sign Arraez to an extension. Let's call it three years in the $15 million-per-year range."
That would be a major surprise. Arraez has become one of the most obvious trade candidates on the market, and it’s easy to see why. He’s a second baseman with a .324 batting average and 3.0 bWAR this season, brings solid defense, and would be a relatively affordable rental for any contender looking for a boost.
From the Giants’ side, though, the logic points the other way. They’re viewed as sellers, and moving Arraez would be the cleanest path if the goal is to open up more everyday at-bats for Casey Schmitt and Bryce Eldridge.
There’s also the money issue. San Francisco already has more than $100 million invested in Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames, which makes another notable commitment harder to fit in.
And then there’s the biggest obstacle of all: Arraez and the Giants reportedly haven’t had extension talks. With no signs of that changing, Axisa’s prediction would amount to a real stunner if it came through.
At this point, the expectation still leans heavily toward Arraez being moved. An extension would be the ideal outcome in a vacuum, but for the Giants in 2026, it doesn’t look like the realistic one.
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