The Giants have a clear offseason question sitting right in front of them: what is Casey Schmitt worth now, and is this the moment to cash it in?
The case for dealing him is straightforward. Schmitt just put together the best offensive season of his career, and he also comes with three remaining years of club control. For San Francisco, that creates a chance to turn a valuable bat into the thing the roster needs most - controllable starting pitching.
Schmitt hit .271/.301/.483 with a career-high 21 home runs in 98 games in 2026. That line gives any interested club a real reason to believe he can handle a regular role at the plate. He also enters his first arbitration year this winter and is under club control through 2029, which means a buyer would be getting three seasons of production without having to pay for the open market.
There’s also more underneath the surface to like. His .512 expected slugging percentage, a Statcast estimate based on batted-ball quality, was better than his actual slugging mark. And his strikeout rate dropped from 23.9% in 2025 to 19.8% in 2026.
The flip side is just as important. Schmitt walked in only 2.7% of his plate appearances, which leaves him with very little margin if the home run pace backs up. A .301 on-base percentage does not leave a ton of breathing room when the power is doing so much of the heavy lifting.
That’s why this winter could be the sweet spot. If he has another big year, his stock could rise again - but the price for another team would likely rise too, and the Giants would also be looking at one less season of control and a potentially larger salary. Right now, they have a proven power bat plus multiple affordable years, which is a trade package that can actually move the needle.
Buster Posey has already hinted at where Schmitt fits defensively. In his season-ending assessment, Posey said he “grades out better at third than anywhere else.”
The problem for Schmitt is that Matt Chapman is there. Chapman’s presence makes it tougher to keep Schmitt at the hot corner, and moving Chapman is no simple fix with his remaining contract and full no-trade clause.
If Chapman stays put, Schmitt becomes one of the Giants’ best chips for addressing pitching. The ideal deal would be with an organization that has an opening at third base and enough depth on the mound to part with a starter.
In that kind of framework, Schmitt could headline a package for a starter who can help in 2027 and remain under control beyond that. If San Francisco wants a premium starter, it would likely have to add more.
That kind of return would matter. It could bring in a pitcher to slot in alongside Logan Webb and Landen Roupp, while also trimming the amount the Giants need to spend in the free-agent market. That’s the appeal: Schmitt’s value turning into a clear upgrade for the rotation.
Still, the Giants would not be trading away a redundant piece. Second base is part of the equation too.
Luis Arraez’s departure opened the job, and Marcelo Mayer’s injuries plus his limited MLB experience leave his readiness in question. Any Schmitt deal would need a replacement plan, whether that means Mayer winning the job with reliable backup help or the club bringing in someone else.
The lineup impact would be real as well. Schmitt’s right-handed power would be missed in a group that already includes Rafael Devers and Bryce Eldridge. That has to be part of the decision before San Francisco takes a pitching offer.
There’s also the matter of health. Schmitt’s season-ending knee injury will have to be reviewed carefully, and the Giants should only move him if a trade partner is comfortable with his recovery and still sees him as a healthy everyday player.
Even with those considerations, the direction is pretty clear. Posey should be shopping Schmitt hard for pitching this winter. Sometimes the smartest move is trading a useful hitter at peak value if that’s what helps build the next roster.
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