With the free-agent market looking thin behind Tarik Skubal, the Giants could end up shopping in a corner where the price is low and the upside is unclear. Carlos Hernández fits that lane. He and Connor Brogdon elected free agency ahead of the most interesting World Series matchup in recent memory, and Hernández now sits as one of the more intriguing bargain-name arms available.
He would not be the move that grabs headlines in San Francisco, and the numbers explain why. Hernández has not put together a season above 0.3 WAR since 2021, and from 2025-26 he logged a 6.22 ERA across 46.1 innings for three teams.
The track record is rough, but the Giants are not exactly shopping for glamour here. They need pitchers, and they need a lot of them.
Position-player help is not the issue; the rotation and depth chart are.
There is still something to work with. Hernández’s career 4.42 FIP is better than his 5.14 ERA, though his strikeout rate of 20.1% and walk rate of 11.1% are both below average.
That walk issue would not exactly solve a problem the Giants already have. They’re carrying a staff that gives out too many free passes as it is.
Even so, the appeal is obvious enough to make him worth a look. Hernández is now farther removed from a scary car accident in January, when his right leg and left arm were fractured.
He also brings a fastball that averages 98.4 mph, which keeps him on the radar despite the shaky results. In that way, he looks a lot like another Giants reclamation piece, Anthony Molina: high velocity, less-than-ideal strikeout and walk numbers, and a background that includes both relief work and starts.
Molina’s first stint in orange and black was encouraging in a limited sample. Over 29 innings in six games and five starts, he posted a 3.72 ERA, a 25.2 K% and a 5.2 BB%.
Over a full season, that ERA and strikeout rate would have stood as career bests, though his track record is still built on just 128.1 major league innings. Molina is 24, which gives him a different kind of appeal than Hernández, who is 29.
Hernández, though, brings more big-league mileage.
His pitch mix is built around that heater, which he throws 54.9% of the time. He also mixes in a splitter, slider and knuckle-curve.
And because he’s a flyball pitcher - his 42.6 career FB% sits above the MLB average of roughly 35% - Oracle Park could make a lot of sense for him. Another bonus: he probably would not get many chances to start elsewhere, which could make San Francisco more attractive if that role matters to him.
This wouldn’t be the kind of signing that sets off a frenzy. But with so many Giants pitchers going down with injuries this year, the team is going to need a stack of different arms just to get through the 162-game grind next season.
Fans want Buster Posey and ownership to show real urgency this offseason, and one or two additions won’t be enough. That’s why a low-cost swing on Hernández makes some sense - not as the answer, but as one more possible bargain in a winter when the Giants need plenty of them.
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