The Rays’ run to the World Series came with a familiar offseason reality attached to it: good teams get expensive fast. And according to one recent prediction, Tampa Bay may already be bracing for a key arm to walk.
Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report projected that Nick Martinez will leave the Rays in free agency and land with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year, $36 million deal.
That outcome would not exactly come out of nowhere. Martinez and Tampa Bay had a mutual option, but after the right-hander put together one of the best seasons of his career, reaching the open market made plenty of sense. At 36, he’s in position to cash in.
Martinez finished the season with a 15-6 record and a 3.10 ERA. His career has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation, but the Rays helped him find another level this year, and he delivered in a big way.
For Tampa Bay, though, bringing him back on that kind of contract would be a tough ask. The Rays have bigger roster questions ahead, especially in the rotation, where they already have two key pitchers set to hit free agency after the 2026 campaign. Losing either one would be a surprise, but replacing both would be a serious challenge.
Junior Caminero gives the lineup a centerpiece to build around, and the Rays still have reasons to feel good about the roster they can put together. But Martinez was one of the arms that helped carry them to the World Series, along with Peralta, and that kind of production is not easy to replace.
Still, Tampa Bay has built its reputation on squeezing the most out of pitchers, and 2026 was another example of that. If Martinez does move on, the Rays will be counting on that formula again.
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