Seahawks Pull Off Wild Comeback, Shake Up NFC Playoff Picture
Thursday Night Football gave us one of the wildest finishes of the season, and the ripple effects across the NFC are massive. The Seattle Seahawks erased a 16-point deficit in the final minutes, then outlasted the Los Angeles Rams in overtime, 38-37. With the win, Seattle not only clinched a playoff berth but also vaulted into the NFC’s top seed with two weeks to go.
But this wasn’t just a win for the Seahawks. The result also opened the door for the San Francisco 49ers, who suddenly find themselves with a clearer path to both the NFC West crown and the No. 1 seed. Let’s break down what this thriller means for the Rams, Seahawks, 49ers-and the rest of the NFC playoff race.
Rams Let a Golden Opportunity Slip Away
This one’s going to sting for a while in Los Angeles.
Heading into Thursday night, the Rams had a 53% chance to lock down the NFC’s top seed, according to playoff simulations. A win would’ve catapulted that number to 90%.
They were up 30-16 with just over eight minutes left. They had a one-game lead over Seattle, a season sweep in hand, and a favorable schedule ahead with the Falcons and Cardinals to close things out.
Instead, the collapse was swift and costly. Now, their odds at the No. 1 seed have plummeted to just 20%, and their chances of winning the division sit at around 24%. That’s a 70-point swing in top-seed probability-a brutal turn for a team that looked poised to control its own destiny.
The Rams have already clinched a playoff spot, but the road to a home playoff game just got a lot steeper. They’ll need to win out and hope both Seattle and San Francisco stumble.
The good news? They’re heavily favored in their final two games against struggling Atlanta and Arizona squads.
But even with those wins, they’ll need help to avoid hitting the road as a wild-card team.
Seattle Now Controls Its Fate
The Seahawks are now the only three-loss team in the NFC, and that puts them in the driver’s seat. If they win their final two games, they’ll lock up the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Simple as that.
But here’s the catch: the road runs straight through Santa Clara in Week 18.
Seattle’s final stretch includes a road trip to Carolina next week, followed by a heavyweight rematch with the 49ers. The playoff simulator gives them a 52% chance to finish atop the NFC, largely because that Week 18 game could decide everything.
If San Francisco wins its next two-against the Colts and Bears-they’ll head into that final game with a shot to steal the division and the top seed. A win over Seattle would give the 49ers a season sweep and the tiebreaker, putting them at 13-4 and atop the NFC.
Even if Seattle slips up against Carolina, they could still win the division by beating San Francisco-if the Rams lose one of their remaining games. However, in that scenario, the Bears could enter the picture for the No. 1 seed if they win out.
The margin for error is razor-thin, but the Seahawks are in control. That’s all you can ask for in December.
49ers Have a Path-But It’s No Cakewalk
San Francisco hasn’t officially clinched a playoff berth yet, but with 99% odds, it’s essentially a formality. What’s still very much up for grabs is the division title and the top seed-both of which are within reach.
The 49ers currently sit with a 22% chance to win the NFC West and a 21% shot at the No. 1 seed. Their path is clear: beat the Colts on Monday night, take care of business against the Bears in Week 17, and then finish the job at home against Seattle.
It won’t be easy. All three opponents are in the playoff mix, and the Seahawks are playing like a team that knows what’s at stake.
But if Kyle Shanahan’s group can run the table, they’ll finish 13-4 and hold the tiebreaker over Seattle. That would mean a fourth division title in nine seasons for Shanahan-and a first-round bye to go with it.
Outside the NFC West, the Bears Are the Only Real Threat
Right now, the NFC West is dominating the top of the conference. Outside of that trio, no other team has more than a 10% shot at the No. 1 seed. The Chicago Bears are the best bet among the rest, sitting at 6%.
For Chicago to make a serious run, they’ll need to win out. That means beating the Packers on Saturday, then going on the road to face the 49ers in Week 17, and closing at home against the Lions. If they pull that off and the Seahawks lose one of their last two, the Bears would finish 13-4 with a 9-3 conference record-good enough to win a tiebreaker.
The Eagles, despite likely winning the NFC East, have less than a 1% chance at the top seed. Same goes for the NFC South, whether it’s the Panthers or Bucs who come out on top.
Final Word
Thursday night’s comeback wasn’t just a jaw-dropper-it was a playoff-altering moment. Seattle now controls its fate.
San Francisco has a clear, if challenging, path to the top. And the Rams are suddenly on the outside looking in when it comes to a first-round bye.
With two weeks left, the NFC playoff race is shaping up to be a sprint to the finish. Buckle up.