Kyle Shanahan has built a reputation as one of the league’s sharpest offensive minds, but one specific down-and-distance choice shows a surprising conservative streak.
On 2nd-and-10 after an incomplete pass on first down, Shanahan has leaned run more often than the modern numbers say he should. Charting from NFL analyst Ryan Paganetti, using Fantasy Points Data and nflfastR from 2022 through 2025 for projected 2026 play callers, puts Shanahan 19th in the NFL with a 50.7% pass rate in that situation.
The sample is sizable, too. Over 76 games, Shanahan faced 2nd-and-10 142 times and called 72 passes against 70 runs, turning the decision into nearly a straight coin flip.
That approach runs against the league-wide data. Paganetti says that since 2022, throwing on 2nd-and-10 has been significantly better than running the ball, with a +16.6 percentage point edge in success rate, an extra +0.23 Expected Points Added per play, and a +6.5 percentage point bump in eventual series success rate. In other words, the run-heavy choice can leave an offense stuck behind the chains.
What makes Shanahan’s ranking stand out is that some of his offensive branches have gone the other way. Los Angeles Chargers head coach Mike McDaniel is sixth in the league, passing at a 66.4% clip on 2nd-and-10.
But not every coach tied to that tree has embraced the same aggression. Arizona Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur, Shanahan’s former passing game coordinator who worked with McDaniel in San Francisco and later spent time with Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams, ranks even lower than Shanahan at No. 20 with a 48.9% pass rate.
For a coach long viewed as an offensive innovator, the numbers point to one area where Shanahan still tends to play it safe. And heading into the 2026 season, the data suggests that letting Brock Purdy throw more often on 2nd-and-10 could push the 49ers’ offense to another level of efficiency.
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