The question around Christian McCaffrey has shifted from his “muscle tightness” to something bigger: whether the 49ers star is quietly making a contract point.
McCaffrey has been out for roughly a week, and Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio raised the idea that this is more than a routine injury absence. In his view, the timing matters, especially with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs having just blown up the running back market and McCaffrey sitting in the next-to-last year of his deal.
“People are starting to wonder if it’s a hold-in. The tightness happens just days after Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs blow up the running back market, and McCaffrey is in the next-to-last year of his contract.
$12.5 million; none of it is guaranteed. Well the average is 19.
Guys only care about what they’re making now. It’s for the team to structure the deal in a way where the guy feels like, in the out years, he’s getting properly compensated.
He’s looking at 12.5 saying, What’s wrong with this picture? It could be that he’s taking a stand quietly to get more money without it being obvious like it was with Robinson and Gibbs because they weren’t practicing because of their contract.”
Florio’s co-host, Chris Simms, also thought the timing was worth noticing. Simms said McCaffrey’s wallet is feeling the tightness and argued the 49ers would have reasons to be cautious about committing guaranteed money to him for several more years at his age.
The financial backdrop is hard to ignore. McCaffrey is the only player to have more than 400 touches in a season since the league expanded to 17 games. He’s also the only person to have over 400 touches in the past decade, and his name appears twice on that list.
If this is indeed a contract play, the logic is obvious enough: McCaffrey may see this as his last real chance to land a bigger payday. That leaves two questions hanging over the situation - whether this is a money-driven hold-in, and whether the 49ers will respond by adding guarantees to his contract.
There’s also the simple fact that McCaffrey has been the centerpiece of the offense. After what he did last season, it would not be shocking to see him push for a better deal.
Simms said there were already rumblings in training camp last year that McCaffrey wanted a “refresher” on his contract. He also pointed to the historical warning signs for running backs who pile up that kind of workload.
Le’Veon Bell was the last player to post a 400-plus touch season, though there’s no data on him because he was ineligible to return in 2018 after failing to report to the Steelers.
Shaun Alexander followed an 1,880-yard season in which he played every game with an 896-yard year in 2006, when he missed six games. He never played a full season again and retired three seasons later.
Larry Johnson’s path was rough too. After his 400-plus touch season in 2006, he missed half of 2007 and never topped 875 rushing yards in any season after that.
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