The Week 4 slate has plenty of good games, but Broncos-49ers stands out as the one with the most juice. Denver is heading to San Francisco with a 2-1 record, while the 49ers are unbeaten and sitting at home as the favored side. It’s a clean matchup on paper, but the deeper numbers - and the injuries piling up for San Francisco - make it a lot more interesting than a simple home-team pick.
Bo Nix and the Broncos have already shown some grit. Denver dropped its opener to the Kansas City Chiefs, then turned around and beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Rams, finding comeback wins in both of the last two weeks.
That’s a pretty strong response after a rough Week 1, especially with the schedule staying brutal. The Broncos made the AFC title game last season, and while the offense hasn’t been smooth for long stretches, there are signs it’s starting to settle in.
San Francisco, meanwhile, has looked every bit like a contender. Brock Purdy has surged into the No. 2 spot in the MVP odds, and his numbers are loud: well over 70 percent completions, 789 passing yards, nine touchdowns, one interception, plus 93 rushing yards and another score. His MVP price has moved from +850 to +450 after the 49ers opened 3-0, and he’s been a big part of why San Francisco now has the No. 1 offense in EPA/Play.
But the schedule matters here. The 49ers have already gotten through games against Miami and Arizona, and they’ve done a lot of their damage against two defenses that rank near the bottom of the league.
Miami sits No. 29 in EPA/Play allowed, Arizona No. 28, and both are in the bottom five in yards per play allowed. San Francisco also failed to cover at home against the Cardinals in Week 3, which is a small crack in the armor heading into a much tougher matchup.
That tougher matchup is what makes this game tricky for the 49ers. Nick Bosa is already ruled out for Week 4, and Mike Evans, Trent Williams, Dre Greenlaw and others are injured.
That’s a real concern against a Denver defense that has already held up against Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford. The Broncos are 10th in EPA/Pass, and they’ve done that while facing three quarterbacks in the MVP conversation.
Purdy still has to deal with a Denver secondary that can make life uncomfortable. Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss and the rest of that group have kept the Broncos in games, and San Francisco’s defense isn’t exactly rolling into this one untouchable.
The 49ers are 19th in success rate and 15th in EPA/Play, which looks a little shaky considering the level of competition they’ve faced. Denver, by contrast, has been tested from the start.
The Broncos also showed something in the second half against the Rams. The offense finally flipped the script, and the defense was steady all game, bending without breaking against Matthew Stafford and company. That matters when you’re walking into a road game where the spread is sitting at a field goal.
The 49ers deserve to be favored at home, but this one feels closer than the market suggests. With the number at three, the Broncos are the side to take.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Fred Warner May Have Created A Rivalry Problem For The 49ers
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Brock Purdy's Hot Start Is About To Face A Different Test
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The next step in evaluating just how real this run is may come this week, when the 49ers face the Broncos. Some of Purdys early opponents have not exactly presented elite defenses, so Denver offers a different kind of measuring stick for San Franciscos offense and its quarterback, who will be asked to keep the same rhythm against a sturdier test. [Read more 🡒]