ESPN’s computer model has already rewritten the Super Bowl picture after just two weeks, and the biggest shift is in the NFC.
Before the season, the system had Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills penciled in as its projected championship matchup.
Now that forecast has changed. Heading into Week 3, ESPN’s FPI is projecting the San Francisco 49ers to come out of the NFC and face the still-favored Bills.
That move tracks with San Francisco’s fast start. The 49ers have climbed to the top of the FPI rankings, sitting at No. 1 with a 7.3 rating. Buffalo is right behind at No. 2 with a 5.7 rating, while the Rams have dropped to third at 4.7 after their early adjustment.
The update also reflects a change the model made after Week 1, when it had already moved off the Rams following their opening loss to the 49ers in Australia. Now the 49ers have taken over as the NFC favorite in the simulation.
The current numbers give San Francisco a 38 percent chance to reach the Super Bowl and a 23.2 percent chance to win it all. Buffalo’s odds are still strong, with a 30.3 percent chance to make the game and a 15.3 percent chance to capture the title. Those projections come from thousands of simulations that account for what has happened so far and what remains on each schedule.
Buffalo still stands as the AFC’s clear favorite after opening 2-0. Josh Allen and the offense have looked sharp, and the model continues to treat the Bills as the conference’s biggest threat.
The Kansas City Chiefs are not far behind in the mix, either. Wins over Denver and Indianapolis have lifted them up the rankings and kept Patrick Mahomes in the conversation.
In the NFC, Seattle is also getting attention despite missing starting quarterback Sam Darnold. The Seahawks have stayed relevant in the projections thanks to their defense and receivers.
For now, though, the biggest takeaway is how quickly the board has changed. The Rams entered the season as the model’s clear favorite with the highest Super Bowl probability.
Two weeks later, that script has already been torn up. If the current projection holds, Kyle Shanahan would be making his third Super Bowl trip with the 49ers.
And with ESPN’s FPI updating daily, this is hardly the final word. The season is still young, and the numbers can move again just as quickly.
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