ESPN’s computer model has already made a notable pivot just two weeks into the NFL season, and the latest projection sends the San Francisco 49ers against the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl.
That’s a change from where the system started before the season, when it had the Los Angeles Rams facing Buffalo for the title. After the first couple of weeks, though, the picture has shifted.
San Francisco’s strong opening run has pushed the 49ers to the top of ESPN’s FPI rankings, where they now sit at No. 1 with a 7.3 rating. The Bills are right behind them at No. 2 with a 5.7, while the Rams have dropped to third at 4.7.
The model’s latest update came after it had already moved off the Rams once before, following their Week 1 loss to the 49ers in Australia. Now the numbers have gone a step further, with the 49ers taking over as the NFC’s projected representative.
According to the current FPI projections, San Francisco has a 38 percent chance to reach the Super Bowl and a 23.2 percent chance to win it all. Buffalo sits at 30.3 percent to make the game and 15.3 percent to take the championship. Those percentages come from thousands of simulations that weigh what’s happened so far along with the rest of the schedule.
Josh Allen and the Bills remain the AFC’s clear favorite after opening 2-0. Their offense has looked sharp, and the model still sees them as the conference’s top threat. The Kansas City Chiefs have also moved up after wins over Denver and Indianapolis, keeping Patrick Mahomes in the conversation.
In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks are drawing attention too, even without starting quarterback Sam Darnold. Their defense and receivers have been enough to keep them in the mix in the projections.
The big takeaway is how quickly the board has changed. Preseason FPI had the Rams as the top Super Bowl favorite. Two weeks later, that script has already been rewritten, and the model’s daily updates mean it could change again soon.
If the current projection holds, Kyle Shanahan would be headed to his third Super Bowl trip with the 49ers.
In Other News...
49ers Week 3 WR Situation Just Got More Complicated For Cardinals
The 49ers wide receiver picture has been moving in the wrong direction this week, but there is at least one important break in the noise. Mike Evans is dealing with a hip issue and did not practice recently, yet the expectation is that he has a good chance to get on the field in Week 3 and be active for the game. For San Francisco, that matters because Evans has become the primary target in a receiver group that is already stretched thin by injuries.
Ian Rapoports update keeps the door open for a key part of the 49ers offensive plan to stay intact against the Cardinals. Even with the injury concern hanging over him, the outlook around Evans is notably better than it first looked, and that gives San Francisco some stability at a position where it badly needs it. The bigger question now is how much the rest of the receiver room can recover around him before kickoff. [Read more 🡒]
49ers Are Getting Early Contender Buzz For A Reason
The 49ers have opened the season with a pair of wins over the Rams and Dolphins, and the early national chatter around them has been loud for a reason. Brock Purdy has looked sharp enough to keep the offense on schedule, while the roster around him continues to give San Francisco the kind of balance that tends to travel well once the schedule gets tougher.
Even with injuries already part of the backdrop, the team has stayed in the conversation near the top of several power rankings, which says plenty about how complete it has looked through two games. Christian McCaffreys touchdown milestones have added to the momentum, and rookie Kaelon Black has also drawn notice for his early contributions, giving the 49ers more than one reason to believe the buzz is real. [Read more 🡒]
Brock Purdy Is Sharpening The Trait 49ers Need Most
Brock Purdys fifth training camp has given the 49ers plenty of evidence that hes still moving in the right direction, and Kyle Shanahan has made clear he likes what hes seeing from the quarterbacks mentality. Purdy has said his focus has been on making better decisions and staying ahead of the chains, which is the sort of steadying trait San Francisco needs from the position as it tries to keep its offense on schedule.
After two games, Purdys efficiency has shown up in the numbers, with a completion rate of 80.4 percent to go with five touchdown passes, a rushing score and one interception. The bigger question for the 49ers is how far that decision-making can carry once defenses keep forcing him to solve tighter windows and more stressful situations, because the early returns suggest the improvement is real even if the full test is still ahead. [Read more 🡒]