The 49ers’ trade-deadline conversation is starting to point in one direction, and it may not be where the noise first went.
Yes, the pass rush will keep coming up. San Francisco entered the year light up front, but Mykel Williams is back, and Nick Bosa is expected in the lineup any week now. While those two were out, the 49ers also got rookie Romello Height some real snaps, and with Keion White in the mix, that edge group looks far less urgent than it did earlier.
The bigger issue is what’s happening inside against the run.
San Francisco’s interior defensive line has been carrying the load with Osa Odighizuwa and Gracen Halton logging the most snaps there, but both have been better getting after the quarterback than holding their ground. According to PFF, Odighizuwa has a 66 pass rush grade and a 32 run defense grade. Halton checks in at 72 in pass rush grade and 53 in run defense.
That split matters, because the two players who were supposed to be the sturdier run defenders - C.J. West and Alfred Collins - are both on injured reserve.
So far, the 49ers have managed to survive it. They’ve spent enough time playing with a lead that opponents have been forced away from the run, which has kept the weakness from turning into a full-blown problem.
That helps explain the weird shape of their numbers. The 49ers are 4th in run defense by EPA/play, but only 24th in success rate.
On a snap-by-snap basis, they are giving up yards. The reason it hasn’t shown up as loudly is that they are not surrendering chunk plays, and Fred Warner along with the back end has helped limit the damage.
Even so, the underlying picture isn’t clean. San Francisco is still 24th in success rate despite not facing a rushing attack currently ranked in the top 15 this season. The Rams were part of that mix, though they had improved and still trailed against the 49ers, which pushed them away from leaning on the ground game.
Miami, Seattle, Denver and Arizona have also had their own issues in the run game for one reason or another.
Eventually, though, the 49ers are going to run into a team that can stay committed to the ground attack and make them pay for what’s happening on the interior. Until that happens, they’ll keep looking for an answer on the front line.
In Other News...
Shanahan Just Made Monday Night About More Than Beating Washington
Kyle Shanahans relationship with Dan Quinn goes back to their Atlanta days, when Shanahan served as offensive coordinator under Quinn in 2015 and 2016. As the 49ers prepare to visit Washington on Monday night, Shanahan said the biggest lessons from that stretch went beyond the playbook, with Quinn putting real weight on how a team talks to one another and builds its identity.
That perspective adds another layer to a matchup that already looks lopsided on paper, with San Francisco leading the NFL in point differential and Washington sitting at 1-3-1. It is also a reunion with a coach Shanahan knows well, only now Quinn is guiding the Commanders, which gives this one a little more history than your average cross-country trip. [Read more 🡒]
49ers Get An Early Edge As Commanders Backfield Suddenly Thins
The 49ers got an early break in the lead-up to their meeting with Washington, as the Commanders backfield took a hit before the matchup even arrived. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, the rookie who has given Washington a useful spark this season with 239 rushing yards and two touchdowns, has been ruled out because of a groin injury, trimming one of the more intriguing pieces of the Commanders run game.
Washington still has options, of course, with Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler expected to carry more of the load. The bigger question now is how the Commanders fill out the rest of that group for game day, and whether the added uncertainty forces them to shuffle more than they would like before facing a 49ers defense that will already be focused on controlling the line of scrimmage. [Read more 🡒]
Renardo Green Is Giving The 49ers Defense Something It Needed
Renardo Green has become one of the more encouraging developments for the 49ers defense this season, giving San Francisco a young corner who is starting to look much more comfortable in Raheem Morris system. His growth has shown up in the numbers, too, with Green standing out among the teams cornerbacks in passes defended and ball hawk rate, a sign that he is not just hanging around plays but consistently finding ways to affect them.
The progress has not come out of nowhere, either. Kyle Shanahan pointed to the work Green did before the offseason program even got rolling as a major reason for the jump, and it is the kind of behind-the-scenes preparation that tends to show up once the games start counting. For a defense that always values playmaking on the back end, Green is starting to provide exactly the sort of presence that can change the way opponents test San Francisco. [Read more 🡒]