NFC Playoff Picture After Week 13: 49ers’ Path to the Top Seed Just Got Real
If Week 13 reminded us of anything, it’s that the NFL rarely sticks to the script. The Chicago Bears stunned the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Rams, fresh off a cross-country trip, got punched in the mouth by the Carolina Panthers. And just like that, the NFC playoff picture took another unexpected turn.
With most of the Week 13 slate wrapped up, let’s break down where things stand-and how the San Francisco 49ers, currently sitting at the 7-seed, could still climb all the way to the top of the NFC mountain.
NFC Playoff Standings (Pending Seahawks Result)
- Chicago Bears (9-3, 6-2 NFC)
- Los Angeles Rams (9-3, 4-3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-4, 7-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5, 4-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (9-3, 5-3)*
- Green Bay Packers (8-3-1, 6-2-1)
- San Francisco 49ers (8-4, 8-2)
- Detroit Lions (7-5, 4-4)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1, 3-4-1)
- Carolina Panthers (7-6, 5-3)
*Seattle’s game is still pending, but they’re heavy home favorites behind one of the league’s top defenses-even with a third-string quarterback under center.
How the 49ers Can Climb to the #1 Seed
Right now, San Francisco is on the outside looking in when it comes to a first-round bye. But thanks to the Rams’ surprising loss, the door to the NFC’s top seed creaked open just a bit wider.
Let’s break it down.
The 49ers’ NFC record (8-2) is better than anyone else’s in the playoff picture. That matters.
A lot. Especially in a crowded field where tiebreakers could be the deciding factor.
And with divisional games still on the schedule-including a Week 18 clash with the Seahawks-San Francisco has a clear, if narrow, path to leapfrog the competition.
The Rams’ loss to Carolina was more than just a stumble-it was a red flag. Their inability to stop the run was glaring, and with Detroit looming on the schedule, that’s a matchup that could go sideways fast.
The Lions have beaten L.A. twice in a row and will be coming off extra rest. That’s a dangerous combination for a Rams team that looked vulnerable on Sunday.
If the Rams drop that game and the 49ers take care of business, San Francisco could be in position to control its own destiny. And that’s before factoring in the Seahawks and their late-season gauntlet: Falcons, Colts, Rams, Panthers, and then the 49ers.
There are slip-up spots all over that stretch. Even if Seattle plays like the top-tier team many believe they are, the road to the No. 1 seed could still come down to that Week 18 showdown in the NFC West.
The 49ers Are Peaking at the Right Time
San Francisco has been handling business the way good teams do-by making bad teams look bad. They’ve dismantled their last three opponents, and they’ll come out of the bye week with a favorable matchup against the Titans. That’s a team with a leaky defense and an offense that’s struggled to find consistency.
And while road games in December can be tricky, a dome setting is a welcome sight for Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan’s offense. That matchup, followed by games against the Colts and Bears, sets the stage for a pivotal final stretch.
The Bears are a fascinating case. They’ve outperformed expectations and have one of the most explosive offenses in the league.
But their defense is still a liability, and they’re in the middle of a brutal stretch against the Eagles, Packers, and Browns. That’s a lot of physical football in a short span.
A road trip to face a rested, playoff-hungry 49ers squad could be a trap game waiting to happen.
All Roads Lead to Week 18
Assuming the 49ers take care of business, it all comes down to the regular-season finale: 49ers vs. Seahawks.
The NFC West. A potential No. 1 seed.
Home-field advantage. A first-round bye.
All on the line.
It’s a big “if,” of course. As Week 13 reminded us, nothing is guaranteed in this league.
But the numbers are starting to lean in San Francisco’s favor. They’ve got a 94% chance to make the playoffs and an 18% shot at winning the division.
That 11% chance at the top seed? It’s not just a pipe dream anymore-it’s a possibility.
The 49ers have the talent, the coaching, and now, thanks to a chaotic Sunday, the opportunity. If they can navigate the next month, they could be sitting atop the NFC when the dust settles.
The road isn’t easy. But it’s there.