NFC Playoff Picture: Why the 49ers Are Quietly Climbing Toward the No. 1 Seed
Don’t look now, but the San Francisco 49ers are lurking - and not just as a Wild Card team. As improbable as it might’ve seemed a few weeks ago, they’ve got a real shot at not only taking the NFC West but even challenging for the conference’s top seed.
It’s a long road, sure, but one more misstep from the Rams and things could get very interesting. For now, the Niners head into their bye week with momentum and a postseason path that’s far from closed.
Let’s break down where things stand - and how they could shake out - as San Francisco eyes a late-season surge.
The Playoff Math: Where the 49ers Stand
If the playoffs started today, the 49ers would be heading to SoFi Stadium for a Wild Card matchup. The Packers would be in Philadelphia, Seattle would visit Tampa Bay, and somehow, the Chicago Bears would be sitting pretty with the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
But thankfully, the postseason doesn’t start today - and the current seeding is anything but set in stone. With five weeks left, the NFC standings are a fluid mess. That’s where ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) comes in, offering a more predictive look at how the conference might shake out based on remaining schedules, team strength, and a little bit of chaos.
Here’s how the odds stack up right now:
- 49ers - 93.4%
Eagles - 92.6%
3.
Rams - 92.4%
4.
Packers - 90.8%
5.
Seahawks - 89.4%
6.
Buccaneers - 79.5%
7.
Bears - 76.3%
8.
Lions - 44.1%
9.
Panthers - 23.4%
10.
Cowboys - 18.2%
So despite sitting in the No. 7 seed for now, the 49ers actually have the highest odds of any NFC team to make the playoffs. That’s a testament to how well they’ve been playing - and how favorable their remaining schedule is compared to the competition.
What Needs to Happen for San Francisco to Win the West
Right now, there’s about a 26% chance the 49ers leapfrog the Rams and win the NFC West. That number hinges on two things: San Francisco continuing to win, and the Rams slipping up just once. One bad Sunday for L.A. could open the door wide for Kyle Shanahan’s squad.
And if that happens? The conversation shifts from “can they make the playoffs?” to “can they steal the top seed?”
It’s not as far-fetched as it sounds.
The NFC’s Wild Race to the Finish
Let’s talk about the rest of the field, because the NFC is shaping up to be a chaotic sprint to the finish line.
The Cowboys are playing some of their best football right now, but their schedule is a gauntlet: Lions, Vikings, Chargers, Rams, and Ravens. They’ll need to be nearly perfect to sneak in.
The Lions, meanwhile, have been maddeningly inconsistent. They’ve alternated wins and losses since Week 5 and still have to face Dallas, the Rams, Steelers, Vikings, and Bears. If Detroit gets in, they’ll have earned it the hard way.
The Bears are ahead of schedule - no doubt about that. But their upcoming matchups with Green Bay and Detroit could be humbling. San Francisco also gets a shot at them late in the year, which could be a pivotal game for seeding.
The Panthers and Buccaneers still have two matchups left against each other, which should go a long way in deciding the NFC South. Carolina beating both the Rams and Seahawks earlier this season could end up being the spoiler twist nobody saw coming.
Green Bay is riding high behind stellar quarterback play, but they’ve taken a hit defensively with a recent injury to a key starter. Still, with Micah Parsons wrecking games and the offense clicking, they’re as dangerous as anyone heading into December.
The Rams feel like the classic team that dominates the regular season only to stumble in the playoffs. There are cracks in the armor - and if they’re not careful, they could be the ones watching San Francisco pass them by.
And then there’s Philadelphia, a team that’s been winning but not exactly convincing anyone. Since Week 9, they rank 27th in EPA per play and 30th in offensive success rate.
That’s not a typo. Their defense is starting to feel the pressure, and unless the offense finds its rhythm, they could be ripe for an early exit.
Aiyuk’s Return Could Be the X-Factor
There’s still uncertainty around whether Brandon Aiyuk will suit up again this season. But if he’s back for the playoffs?
That changes things - fast. Aiyuk stretches the field, opens up the run game, and gives Brock Purdy another trusted weapon.
His return could bump the 49ers’ playoff ceiling up a full tier.
One Simulation, One Wild Finish
Using ESPN’s playoff simulator, here’s how one possible - and entirely plausible - scenario plays out:
- Week 14: Cowboys beat the Lions. Bucs take down the Saints.
Seahawks handle Atlanta. Packers beat the Bears.
Rams cruise past Arizona. Eagles beat the Chargers.
- Week 15: Tampa edges Atlanta. Bears beat the Browns.
Raiders collapse in Philly. Giants struggle in Seattle.
Packers win in Denver. 49ers beat the league’s bottom-dweller. Panthers upset the Saints.
Lions win a must-have vs. the Rams. Cowboys take down J.J.
McCarthy.
- Week 16: Rams beat the Seahawks. Eagles handle Washington.
Packers own the Bears again. Cowboys beat the Chargers.
Baker Mayfield beats Bryce Young. Lions beat Jordan Love. 49ers outgun the Colts.
- Week 17: Cowboys, Lions, Rams, and Seahawks beat weaker opponents. Packers and Eagles win their AFC matchups. The 49ers beat the Bears in a statement game.
- Week 18: Rams, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Packers, and Bucs all win. But the 49ers fall at home to Seattle - a loss that drops them from the No. 5 seed (and a trip to Tampa) to the No. 6 seed, setting up a rematch in Philadelphia.
Revenge Tour? San Francisco vs. Philly, Again
That potential Wild Card matchup with the Eagles would be must-see TV. After the way things ended in the 2022 NFC Championship Game, the 49ers would have no shortage of motivation. And given how Philly’s offense has sputtered lately, this is a matchup that actually favors San Francisco.
The Eagles haven’t looked like themselves in weeks. Their offensive struggles are bleeding into the defense, and if there’s one team built to exploit that, it’s the 49ers.
Final Word: The 49ers Are Built for January
There’s still a lot of football left to play, and nothing is guaranteed. But the numbers - and the eye test - tell us the 49ers are in a great spot. They’re healthy, they’re rolling, and they’ve got a favorable schedule down the stretch.
Even if they take a late-season loss to Seattle, they’re still in line for a playoff berth - and a potential revenge game in Philly. For a team that’s been on the wrong end of postseason heartbreak, that’s the kind of opportunity you circle on the calendar.
The road to the Super Bowl is still wide open. And the 49ers? They’re not just in the race - they might be peaking at the perfect time.