The 49ers have spent six weeks looking like the NFL’s most complete team, and ESPN’s numbers are only pouring fuel on the fire.
San Francisco sits at 6-0, Brock Purdy has moved into MVP-front-runner territory, Kyle Shanahan has already wiped out his Seahawks headaches, and Raheem Morris has the defense back among the league’s best. The roster still isn’t whole - the injured reserve is crowded enough to feel absurd - but on Sundays, the 49ers have looked close to unstoppable.
That’s exactly how ESPN Analytics sees it, too.
A fan spotted the Matchup Predictor on Friday, and it gives San Francisco the edge in all 11 of its remaining games. The lone real coin flip is Week 16 in Kansas City, where the 49ers are listed with a 50.5% chance to win.
The other projections are far more comfortable for San Francisco:
Week 8: Bye
Week 13: 49ers 85.9%, Giants 14%
Week 14: 49ers 65.7%, Rams 34%
Week 15: 49ers 74.5%, Chargers 25.3%
Week 17: 49ers 87.4%, Eagles 12.5%
There’s some context behind those numbers, of course. The 49ers’ first six opponents have gone 12-22-1, which ranks as the NFL’s third-easiest schedule by opponent win percentage through this point. On top of that, San Francisco’s remaining slate checks in as the tied-for-sixth-easiest by opponent win percentage at .461.
ESPN’s model, though, isn’t built on strength of schedule alone.
A 2016 ESPN blog post said the Matchup Predictor weighs team strength, opponent strength and home-field advantage, but also a longer list of factors: previous on-field performance measured by expected points added per play, rest, altitude, distance traveled, seasonal effects, and quarterback injuries, suspensions and absences.
“All of these factors are combined to make up each single-game projection,” ESPN explains. “Then each team’s season is simulated 10,000 times to produce its chance to win its division, make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl and pick first in the NFL draft, among other interesting projections.
Ultimately the Football Power Index gives us a tool to project that future. In its first publicly available season, the FPI favorite won 63 percent of NFL games, which is comparable with the Vegas closing line, and proved to be well calibrated in a small sample.
Because of the level of detail in each simulation and the exhaustive process in building the model (see details on process here) we are confident that it will be remain of the most accurate systems out there for the upcoming season.”
The game-by-game predictor even has San Francisco on a path that would make it just the third team since 1972 to finish the regular season undefeated. ESPN’s Football Power Index is a little less extreme, but still glowing: it projects the 49ers to finish 14.1-2.9, with a 97.5% chance to win the division, a 46.2% chance to reach the Super Bowl and a 27.3% chance to win it all. All three marks lead the league.
In Other News...
49ers Bye Week Could Clarify A Return Picture Fans Need To See
The bye week arrives at a useful time for a 49ers team that has spent much of the first half juggling injuries, roster moves and the expectation that help is still on the way. San Francisco is using the break to reset physically and sort through a return picture that includes several important names, with the hope that the roster looks a lot healthier once the season resumes.
There is still some uncertainty in the timing, though, especially for the players fans are watching most closely. Deebo Samuel is part of that recovery conversation, but his hamstring situation may require a little more patience even after the break, while the 49ers are particularly eager to see one of their defensive leaders get through the extra week in good shape. Other injured players remain further away, leaving the team to balance short-term caution with the need to get stronger for the second half. [Read more 🡒]
Kyle Shanahan Heads Into Bye With A 49ers Problem He Must Fix
The 49ers have spent much of the early season trying to build on clean, efficient football, but the last two weeks have complicated that picture. After standing as the leagues least-penalized team through Week 5, San Francisco suddenly looked sloppier in back-to-back games, with discipline issues becoming a more visible part of the conversation as the offense and defense both fought through a rough stretch.
Kyle Shanahan now gets the bye week to sort out a problem that has started to chip away at the Niners edge. Penalties are rarely the flashiest issue on a contender, but they can quickly become one when they alter drives, extend possessions and force a team to play from behind. For a San Francisco group that still has bigger goals in front of it, the coming week offers a needed reset before the season resumes. [Read more 🡒]
49ers Keep Running Into The Same Problem On Offense
The 49ers have spent much of this season trying to piece together an offense that can stay intact long enough to find a rhythm, and Mike Evans has become a central part of that equation. Injuries have already forced San Francisco to navigate stretches without Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, leaving the unit short on the kind of playmaking and stability that usually keeps it on schedule. Even with the bye week offering a reset and a chance to get some bodies back, the bigger concern is whether the group can finally look like a whole offense for more than a brief stretch.
What has made the situation so frustrating is how dependent the 49ers have become on Evans being available and productive. When he is on the field, the offense can look far more balanced and dangerous, but every absence seems to expose the same familiar issues in protection, timing and finishing drives. The coming weeks will tell a lot about whether San Francisco can finally escape that cycle, or whether it is going to keep leaning on a few key names just to keep the attack moving. [Read more 🡒]