With three weeks left in the regular season, the San Francisco 49ers are sitting at 10-4 and technically in third place in the NFC West-but don’t let that fool you. Despite trailing both the 11-3 Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks in their own division, the Niners are still very much in the hunt for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Yes, you read that right. A third-place team with a real shot at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Welcome to the chaos of the 2025 NFC playoff race.
The Current NFC Landscape
Here’s how the playoff picture looks heading into Week 16:
- Los Angeles Rams (11-3) - 1st, NFC West
- Chicago Bears (10-4) - 1st, NFC North
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) - 1st, NFC East
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) - 1st, NFC South
- Seattle Seahawks (11-3) - 2nd, NFC West
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4) - 3rd, NFC West
- Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) - 2nd, NFC North
On the outside looking in:
- Detroit Lions (8-6)
- Carolina Panthers (7-7)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
The NFC West is, without question, the deepest division in football right now. Three teams with 10 or more wins, all in playoff position, and all still jockeying for seeding. But what makes the 49ers’ path to the top so intriguing is that it’s not just mathematically possible-it’s legitimately within reach.
How the 49ers Can Climb to the No. 1 Seed
Let’s break it down. For the Niners to make their move, it starts with one simple requirement: win out.
That means taking care of business on Monday Night Football against a struggling Indianapolis Colts squad, then defending home turf in back-to-back weeks against the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks. None of those are layups, but none are unwinnable either-especially for a team that’s already shown it can beat Seattle (Week 1) and is peaking at the right time.
If San Francisco runs the table, it would finish 13-4. But that alone doesn’t clinch the top seed. They’ll need a little help-specifically from the Seahawks this Thursday night.
Here’s why: if Seattle beats the Rams on Thursday Night Football, it hands LA its fourth loss and evens the season series between the Rams and 49ers at 1-1. From there, the tiebreaker swings to division record, where San Francisco would have the edge if they sweep the Seahawks and beat the Rams in that category.
That’s right-49ers fans will be pulling for the Seahawks this week, even though they’ll need to beat them themselves in Week 18. It’s a strange twist, but that’s the kind of season it’s been in the NFC.
Should the Rams come out on top Thursday, the path gets trickier. The 49ers would then be banking on an upset loss for LA against either the Arizona Cardinals or Atlanta Falcons-two teams that haven’t exactly been world-beaters this year.
The Bears Factor
Don’t forget about Chicago. The Bears are tied with the 49ers at 10-4 and currently hold the NFC North lead. But with a head-to-head matchup looming in Week 17, San Francisco controls that tiebreaker too-if they win.
That game could end up being a de facto playoff seeding battle. A win there not only knocks the Bears down a peg but strengthens the Niners’ resume in the conference standings.
Bottom Line
The 49ers don’t fully control their destiny, but they’re not far off. Win their final three games, get a little help from Seattle this week, and they could leapfrog five teams and lock in the NFC’s top seed.
It’s a tall order, but not an impossible one. And for a team that’s been tested all year and is finally hitting its stride, the opportunity is very real.
The road to the No. 1 seed might be unconventional-but in a year where nothing in the NFC has gone according to script, San Francisco is exactly where it wants to be: dangerous, motivated, and very much alive.