The 49ers and Seahawks are walking into Sunday looking a lot more alike than anyone might have guessed four weeks into the season.
San Francisco arrives in Seattle at 4-0 after grinding out a win over the Denver Broncos. Seattle is 3-1 after taking apart the Chargers.
It sets up what looks like the biggest game of the season so far, with the two best teams in the NFC meeting in a matchup that figures to be decided by the smallest of edges. If this one feels familiar, there’s a reason: it has the look of 2012 again, when both teams were evenly matched and every snap mattered.
A big part of that similarity shows up on defense, where both teams have been among the best at preventing explosive plays. The 49ers currently lead the league by allowing explosive plays on just 2.7% of snaps, with explosive plays defined as passes or runs of more than 20 yards.
That hasn’t happened by accident. San Francisco’s secondary has done a strong job of keeping everything in front of it, Raheem Morris has made the right calls at the right times, and the offenses the 49ers have faced so far haven’t exactly been built to attack vertically.
Miami has generated passing explosives more through screens and diagonal throws than straight-downfield shots. Arizona hasn’t had much interest in pushing the ball deep with Jacoby Brissett under center. Denver has been the same way, even if Sean Payton would prefer to attack downfield; Bo Nix simply hasn’t wanted to.
Seattle isn’t far behind. The Seahawks rank third in explosive play rate allowed at 4.9%, and their pass defense has been especially stingy, sitting third in the NFL in explosive passes allowed at 2.2%.
The place where San Francisco may be able to make a dent is against the run. Seattle ranks seventh in rushing explosives allowed at 8.2%, and that is where the 49ers will need to capitalize on Sunday.
The coverage numbers tell a similar story. San Francisco’s defense has stayed rooted in zone concepts even with Morris taking over as defensive coordinator, with Cover 4 making up 45.8% of its calls. Cover 6 accounts for another 18.7%, and the biggest shift has been a rise to 25% Cover 1 man.
Seattle is even more committed to zone. The Seahawks play 34.9% Cover 3, 20.8% Cover 4, and 24.8% Cover 6, making them a defense that wants to win with four rushers and then squeeze the field with zone coverage. If the opposing offense can’t threaten vertically or create separation, Seattle’s defense can be suffocating.
In Other News...
49ers Got The Kyle Juszczyk Injury News They Desperately Needed
Kyle Juszczyks knee injury looked far worse in the moment, but the 49ers avoided the kind of outcome that can reshape a season. The Pro Bowl fullback was hurt against the Broncos and later learned the MRI showed no ligament damage, easing fears around a play that had plenty of people bracing for a longer absence.
Juszczyk is still expected to miss two to three weeks after suffering a hyperextended knee, capsule sprain and minor bone bruise, which likely rules him out for the Seahawks game. Even so, the door is open for a return before the end of October, a useful bit of news for a San Francisco offense that leans on his versatility and physical presence in the run game and around the goal line. [Read more 🡒]
John Lynch Could Have One More Aggressive Move In Mind
The 49ers have been surviving the kind of stretch that tends to test a rosters depth as much as its talent, stacking wins even while dealing with injuries that have complicated the week-to-week picture. That kind of success can make a front office hesitate, but it can also sharpen the sense that the current group is close enough to justify a little more help before the season gets much deeper.
With the November 10 trade deadline looming, John Lynch could still have one aggressive move left to make if he decides the run should be supported rather than merely managed. The names tied to that conversation point in a few different directions, from defensive tackle Daron Payne to wide receiver Quentin Johnston to edge rushers Za'Darius Smith and Khalil Mack, which says plenty about the range of ways San Francisco could try to bolster itself without waiting for the market to come to it. [Read more 🡒]
49ers Injury Report Brings Early Concern And One Intriguing Possibility
The first Week 5 practice brought an early dose of concern for San Francisco, with five players sitting out as the 49ers started preparing for Seattle. Nick Bosa, James Thompson, Kyle Juszczyk, Marques Sigle, and Upton Stout were all absent, while Mykel Williams, Mike Evans and Kaelon Black took part on a limited basis as the team tried to sort through an injury list that already had some familiar names on it.
Williams is the most intriguing piece of the group, since a return to the field could be on the table after he worked his way back from injury. Coach Kyle Shanahan also said Stout is day-to-day with a shoulder issue, which at least gives the 49ers some reason to keep a close eye on the week rather than assume the early absences will define it. [Read more 🡒]