After a chaotic Week 3 around the league, the 49ers find themselves sitting on top of the NFC West and heading into another tight-looking matchup. San Francisco is set up for a Week 4 trip into a game that oddsmakers expect to stay close, with the Niners opening as 2.5-point favorites over the Broncos at FanDuel Sportsbook. The total is 46.5.
That number makes sense given what both teams have shown. San Francisco has been sharp enough to keep winning, even with the kind of turbulence that can flip a game in a hurry.
The 49ers are the first team not to allow a sack in three weeks since the 2015 Bengals, and it’s the first time in franchise history during that stretch since 1979. That is a Brock Purdy stat.
The protection issue matters here because Denver brings real pressure. Heading into Week 3, the Broncos ranked ninth in the NFL in pressure percentage. Trent Williams should be OK with a stinger, but this is still a tougher test than San Francisco has seen lately.
One reason the line is so short is the injury picture on both sides. The source material points to Williams and Evans, and also notes that taking away Nick Bosa leaves San Francisco without three of its best players. Dre Greenlaw being out would leave Garret Wallow to play an entire game.
Even so, the 49ers have a path. The Rams piled up yardage in Week 3, but they also ran 82 plays, which is exactly the kind of grind Kyle Shanahan would like to avoid on the other side. Possession matters here, especially with an injury-riddled defense that benefits from staying off the field.
San Francisco also has every reason to lean on Christian McCaffrey. Kyle Shanahan may be less hesitant to build the game plan around him after the way McCaffrey ran the ball in Week 3.
Denver, though, has enough on offense to make this interesting. The Broncos are above league average in passing success rate and EPA per pass, and Bo Nix should be able to move the ball. The total sitting closer to 50 suggests the 49ers will score, but Denver should have chances too.
There are some matchup wrinkles that could decide how this plays out. The Rams found some success running the ball against Denver before Sean McVay drifted into a pass-heavy approach.
Fifty-five (!) passing attempts for Stafford on a day when your starting running back was averaging nearly six yards per carry cannot happen, not when you’re relying on YOLO balls down the field.
San Francisco’s passing game could also benefit from how Denver’s defense has looked in spots. Pat Surtain figures to be a tough assignment, but Riley Moss was beaten deep on a double move, and Jacob Cowing may have a chance to make an impact in that area, much like he did as a rookie against the Chiefs.
The Broncos didn’t immediately solve the Rams’ offense either. It took Denver until the third quarter to find the weaknesses in Los Angeles’ defense, while Arizona moved the ball in the first half but didn’t start turning those opportunities into touchdowns until the second half.
That leaves the key question for Sunday: can Denver’s defense hang on long enough against a San Francisco offense that should get its share, or does Brock Purdy end up carrying the load again? Jaylen Waddle and running back R.J. Harvey are described as major challenges for a defense that is likely to be short-handed in the pass rush again, and the 49ers will need to avoid a game that turns into a shootout they have to survive on the quarterback’s shoulders alone.
In Other News...
Fred Warner May Have Created A Rivalry Problem For The 49ers
Fred Warners postgame comments after the 49ers close win over the Arizona Cardinals added a little edge to a division race that already has plenty of it. The veteran linebacker said the earlier meetings were not true NFL ball because starters were sitting out in the fourth quarter, a remark that was really about the competitive feel of those games rather than a direct shot at anyone in particular.
Even so, the line has a way of landing differently when a division rival is involved, especially with the Los Angeles Rams dealing with their own adversity this season. If the Rams take it as a slight, Warner may have given them a little extra fuel, and the 49ers will find out soon enough whether a passing comment turns into something bigger on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Tyreek Hill Is Back On The Radar For Banged-Up 49ers
Tyreek Hill is back in the conversation after posting on social media that he is close to returning to work, a notable update for a receiver still working back from a severe knee injury. Around the league, that kind of message tends to spark instant speculation, and it lands especially hard for the 49ers, who have been hit by a string of wide receiver injuries this season.
San Franciscos need at the position has only grown with the recent rib injury to Mike Evans adding to the teams already banged-up receiving group. Hill has naturally become a name to watch, but for now the interest remains just that, with no official contact or deal reported as the 49ers and other teams monitor his recovery. [Read more 🡒]
Brock Purdy's Hot Start Is About To Face A Different Test
Brock Purdys early-season surge has drawn plenty of notice around the league, with Dan Orlovsky and Pat McAfee both publicly praising the 49ers quarterback and putting him in the early MVP conversation. The numbers have backed up the buzz, as Purdy has been near the top of the league in completion rate, touchdowns and touchdown-to-interception ratio while guiding San Francisco through a fast start.
The next step in evaluating just how real this run is may come this week, when the 49ers face the Broncos. Some of Purdys early opponents have not exactly presented elite defenses, so Denver offers a different kind of measuring stick for San Franciscos offense and its quarterback, who will be asked to keep the same rhythm against a sturdier test. [Read more 🡒]