The San Francisco 49ers don’t just have the better roster heading into Monday Night Football. They walk into this matchup with a stack of advantages that should make life miserable for Dan Quinn’s Washington Commanders.
That’s especially true given where the two teams are right now. Fox Sports’ Tom Brady flagged San Francisco in his Week 6 NFL power rankings as a team that could be vulnerable to an upset by Washington’s 1-3-1 start.
But the matchup details tell a much different story. The 49ers have been rolling under Kyle Shanahan, while Washington’s defense has been leaking points, Jayden Daniels has been banged up, and Quinn’s clock management came under fire after last week’s tie with the New York Giants.
San Francisco should have plenty of chances to put this game away, and one of the biggest reasons is what happens once it gets close.
If the 49ers reach the red zone, they’ve been finishing drives at a ridiculous rate. According to the Associated Press’ Josh Dubow, San Francisco is scoring touchdowns on 87.5 percent of its red-zone trips, the best mark in the league.
Washington, meanwhile, has allowed touchdowns on 83.3 percent of red-zone possessions, worst in the NFL. That’s the kind of strength-vs.-weakness clash that usually decides a game before the fourth quarter even gets interesting.
And if it does get tight late, the 49ers have another edge: Brock Purdy has been at his best in crunch time. Over the last two weeks, he’s delivered fourth-quarter performances that helped San Francisco close out Denver and Seattle.
Washington’s defense has done the opposite, surrendering a 137.2 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in the fourth quarter this season, along with six touchdown passes and just one interception. It’s also giving up 9.9 yards per attempt in that frame, the worst of any quarter by a wide margin.
Purdy’s fourth-quarter passer rating this year? 149.1, his best in any quarter.
George Kittle is another name that should be on Washington’s radar. He was limited against Seattle by an illness and finished with just two catches for 12 yards, but the Commanders have struggled badly to contain tight ends all season.
Washington has given up 372 receiving yards to the position, fourth most in the league, and has allowed seven tight end touchdowns, with only the Detroit Lions’ nine ranking worse. Kittle may not need a monster stat line to matter here, but he looks lined up for a productive night and a real chance to score.
Washington’s pass rush also doesn’t look equipped to stress Purdy in a meaningful way. Quinn’s defense loves to blitz, sending extra rushers on 37.7 percent of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.
That puts Purdy in pressure situations often enough, but the numbers say he handles them well. Per Pro Football Focus, he owns a 135.1 passer rating against the blitz.
The Commanders may keep sending heat anyway, but that plays into one of Purdy’s strengths.
Then there’s the question of whether Washington can get home without blitzing, and the answer so far has been no. The Commanders have only nine sacks through five weeks, tied to a pass rush that has not shown much bite.
San Francisco gave up three sacks to Seattle in Week 5 after going four straight games without allowing one, but Washington doesn’t look like the kind of front that can consistently disrupt the pocket with four rushers. If Quinn has to lean on the blitz to create pressure, that only gives Purdy more chances to make them pay.
Taken together, it’s a rough setup for Washington. San Francisco owns the red zone, Purdy has been clutch, Kittle has a favorable matchup, the blitz may backfire, and the Commanders haven’t shown enough pass-rush punch to flip the script. If Brady was looking for an upset, the matchup says the 49ers are in position to make sure that never gets off the ground.
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The matchup comes with a few moving parts, but Purdy still has enough help around him to keep the momentum going, with key targets such as George Kittle expected to factor in. If the passing game stays on schedule against the Commanders, the 49ers could leave Monday with a start that feels less like a hot streak and more like something historically significant. [Read more 🡒]