Christian McCaffrey’s 2025 season looked like the kind of workload that can make a team nervous heading into the next year.
The 49ers running back piled up 311 carries for 1,202 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, while adding 102 catches for 924 yards and seven receiving scores. On the surface, that’s a big-time season - one of the best of his career - even if he didn’t look quite as explosive as he had in past years.
That production helped San Francisco get to the playoffs, but it also came with a cost. McCaffrey handled more work than he ever had before, and the concern now is whether that kind of usage can hold up as he moves deeper into his 30s.
One stat in particular paints a bleak picture. Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport pointed to the average drop-off for running backs who surpass 370 touches in a season since 2016.
"The average statistical decline for running backs who eclipse 370 touches in a season since 2016 is about 48 percent," wrote Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport.
He added another warning sign tied to massive yardage totals.
"The average statistical decline for running backs who have topped 2,000 total yards in a season since 2010 is over 50 percent.
"Then there's the matter of us having seen this movie before with McCaffrey-twice. After the 30-year-old had 403 touches and 2,392 total yards in 2019, he played in just three games in 2020; after he piled up 2,023 total yards on just 339 touches in 2023, he played in four games in 2024.
"McCaffrey's workload last year was bigger than in either of those seasons. He's older than in either of those seasons."
The 49ers still plan to lean on him, though they’ve also said they want to cut back on his workload. Ed McCaffrey made the point that pulling him off the field gets harder when he’s rolling.
That leaves San Francisco in a tricky spot. McCaffrey remains one of the most important players on the roster, but pushing him too hard could create serious problems. A long-term injury would be devastating.
For now, McCaffrey says he’s entering the season fully healthy, which was not the case at this point a year ago. For the 49ers, that’s the best place to start.
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