The numbers say Sunday’s 49ers-Cowboys matchup could turn into a track meet.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the total sitting at 55.5, which is tied for the highest mark of the season. The only other game to reach that number was the October 12 meeting between the Bills and Rams, and that one finished 37-34. With San Francisco third in the NFL in points per game and Dallas sixth, the sportsbook isn’t exactly going out on a limb here.
Dallas has already been part of a pair of 54.5-point games. One came this month in Arizona, where the Cowboys lost 33-30.
The other was back in September against the Ravens, a 34-31 game. San Francisco, meanwhile, has had just one pre-flop total above 50, though it has already been involved in two games that cleared 60 points.
At 55.5, the message from oddsmakers is simple: they don’t think the ceiling is high enough.
The 49ers are listed as 4.5-point favorites, and the reason is hard to miss. Only the Raiders have been worse defensively in EPA per play than the Cowboys, who also rank 25th in defensive success rate.
If you watched Colts-Cowboys on Sunday, you saw how much room Dallas has been giving up underneath and beyond it. The replays kept showing Daniel Jones finding open receivers at the intermediate and deep levels. Dallas was missing cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown in Week 9, and it’s fair to wonder whether either changes much against San Francisco.
The 49ers have been sturdy on defense this season, but they haven’t faced an offense with Dallas’ collection of weapons yet. That secondary is about to be tested in a way it hasn’t been all year, and it will be facing the best quarterback Raheem Morris has seen. Per Sports Info Solutions, no quarterback has been more valuable than Dak Prescott this season.
As wild as the total looks, it may still be light for a game with this much firepower on both sides.
This one feels like it should be on Sunday Night Football. It has all the ingredients to be the most entertaining game of the month. Too bad it wasn’t flexed.
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