With just two weeks left in the NFL regular season, the playoff race is heating up-and it's about as chaotic as it gets. Seven of the eight divisions are still up for grabs, and not a single team in either conference has better than a 60% shot at locking down the No. 1 seed. Translation: buckle up, because the top seeds in both the AFC and NFC are almost certainly going to come down to the final whistle in Week 18.
But before we get there, Week 17 is loaded with playoff implications. Let’s dive into the matchups that matter most and break down how this weekend could reshape the postseason picture.
Texans on the Verge, but Still in the Fight
The Houston Texans didn’t join the group of teams that clinched playoff spots thanks to the Colts’ Monday night loss, but they’re right on the doorstep. A win or tie this week would punch their ticket, as would a Colts loss or tie.
And the AFC South? Still very much in play.
Here’s the math: a win keeps Houston alive for the division crown heading into Week 18, regardless of what Jacksonville does. But if they lose and the Jaguars win or tie, the Texans are out of the division race.
The dream scenario for Houston? A win paired with a Jaguars loss, which would give them an 84% chance to take the AFC South for the third straight season.
Chargers Hanging Tough in the AFC West
In a season where the Chargers' offensive line has been held together with duct tape and prayers, it’s almost shocking they’re still in the mix for the AFC West. But here we are.
They’ve already clinched a playoff berth, so the only thing left is the division title. They can’t clinch it this week, but they can be eliminated with a loss-thanks to Denver’s Thursday night win. A Chargers victory, though, would set up a winner-take-all showdown in Denver in Week 18.
And for those dreaming big in L.A.? A win over Houston and a Patriots loss would keep the Chargers alive for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Yes, really.
Ravens Need Help to Stay in the AFC North Hunt
The Ravens’ path to the AFC North title is pretty straightforward, but it’s also out of their hands. They must beat the Packers-no ifs, ands, or ties about it.
A tie eliminates them from the division race. But even if they win, they’ll need help from Cleveland.
If the Steelers beat the Browns, the AFC North is Pittsburgh’s. Period. But if the Browns pull off the win, then buckle up for a Week 18 showdown in Pittsburgh with the division title on the line.
Packers Still Alive, But It’s Complicated
Green Bay looked like they had the NFC North locked up-until a fourth-quarter collapse and an overtime loss to the Bears flipped everything upside down. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot, but the division is a much tougher climb now.
If the Packers lose this week, they’re out of the NFC North race. Same goes for a tie, if the Bears also tie or win. But if Green Bay wins and the Bears lose, then Week 18 becomes a must-win scenario for the Packers, who would also need another Bears loss.
One big variable here: the health of quarterback Jordan Love. His status could swing the odds dramatically over the next two weeks.
Colts Hanging by a Thread
After falling to the 49ers on Monday night, the Colts’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread-just 1% to be exact. They need to win out and hope the Texans lose out. Anything less-a loss, a tie, or a Texans win/tie-and Indianapolis is officially out.
Jaguars Eyeing the AFC South, and More
Jacksonville is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and they have a chance to ride that momentum straight to an AFC South title. A win over the Colts won’t be enough by itself, but if it’s paired with a Texans loss or tie, they clinch the division.
There’s also a path with a tie and a Texans loss. Beyond the division, the Jaguars are still in the mix for the AFC’s top seed, but a loss this weekend would slam that door shut.
Seahawks in the Driver’s Seat in the NFC West
Seattle’s comeback win over the Rams last week wasn’t just thrilling-it was massive for the playoff picture. The Seahawks now control their own destiny in the NFC West and even have a (very slim) shot at the No. 1 seed.
To clinch the top seed this weekend, they’d need to win, have the Rams lose or tie, and see a 49ers-Bears tie. Not likely.
So let’s focus on the division. Seattle can clinch the NFC West with a win, a Rams loss or tie, and a 49ers loss or tie.
Again, not the most probable combo, but a win alone would bump their division odds from 50% to 61%.
Panthers’ Simple Path in the NFC South
It’s pretty cut-and-dry for Carolina. A win plus a Buccaneers loss or tie means they clinch the NFC South.
A tie and a Bucs loss would also do the trick. If neither of those scenarios plays out, then we’re looking at a Week 18 winner-take-all showdown in Tampa.
Right now, the Panthers sit at 45% to win the division. A win this week bumps that to 58%, but a Bucs win drops it to 36%. And yes, Carolina will likely be underdogs in that Week 18 matchup.
Bears Can Wrap Up the North This Week
Chicago’s win over Green Bay last week was more than just a rivalry W-it put them in the driver’s seat for the NFC North. Now, it’s simple: win this weekend or watch the Packers lose, and the Bears are division champs.
They currently hold an 88% chance to take the North. Even if they lose, that number only drops to 80%.
So no need to panic-yet. But like the Packers, their fate is somewhat tied to Jordan Love’s health.
The Bears are also still alive for the NFC’s top seed. A win boosts their odds to 35%; a loss ends that dream.
49ers Still Control Their Destiny
San Francisco is in a strong position heading into the final stretch. They control their path to both the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed.
A win over the Bears would raise their division odds to 46%, setting up a potential Week 18 win-and-clinch matchup against Seattle. While locking up the division is the priority, seeding still matters.
Right now, the 49ers have a 12% chance to land as the No. 5 seed-but also a 9% shot at falling all the way to No. 7.
The Bottom Line
With so much still up in the air, Week 17 is shaping up to be a pivotal chapter in what’s been a wild NFL season. Division titles, top seeds, and playoff berths are all on the line-and in many cases, one team’s fate hinges on the outcome of another’s game.
So, whether your team’s fighting for the No. 1 seed or just trying to sneak in, this weekend is must-watch football. The margins are razor-thin.
The stakes? Enormous.
And the drama? Just getting started.