The 49ers’ growing interest in Brian Thomas Jr. comes with a simple question attached: what is Jacksonville going to want in return?
San Francisco has been linked to the Jaguars receiver a lot over the past couple of weeks, and the idea hasn’t disappeared. After the 49ers were connected to DeForest Buckner in the media and then ended up making the move, it’s fair to say these rumors can gain real traction. But if the 49ers are serious about Thomas, the price tag is going to matter as much as the fit.
That’s where the recent Marvin Harrison Jr. trade comes into play. Houston sent a second-round pick for Harrison, along with a sixth-round pick to receive a seventh-round pick back. That deal gives Jacksonville a useful measuring stick, and it may not be the one San Francisco wants to see.
Thomas was selected 23rd overall, while Harrison went No. 4.
On paper, Harrison has the stronger draft pedigree. In the market, though, Thomas has the edge in production.
He has 146 catches for 2,115 yards and averages 1.87 yards per route run in his NFL career. Harrison has 112 receptions for 1,618 yards and averages 1.49 yards per route run.
A lot of that gap comes from Thomas’ rookie year, when he posted 1,282 yards. Since then, the numbers have flattened out.
He averaged 1.45 yards per route run in year two and is at 0.95 this season. Harrison’s recent stretch hasn’t done much to help his case either.
He averaged 1.58 yards per route run in his second season and is down to 0.79 right now.
There’s also a warning sign for anyone treating the Harrison deal as a clear success. He has four catches for 40 yards in his two games with the Texans since the trade.
From Jacksonville’s side, the fit is easy enough to understand. The Jaguars do not have much of a need for Thomas.
From San Francisco’s side, receiver depth and talent are thin enough that the match makes sense, too. The problem is whether the Jaguars look at the Harrison trade and decide they want a second-round pick back.
If that’s the asking price, the 49ers may need to look elsewhere. Paying a second-rounder for a receiver who has struggled would be a dangerous swing.
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