Sam Darnold and Eric Saubert weren’t just former 49ers backups on Thursday night-they were unexpected heroes in a game that could reshape the entire NFC playoff picture. In a wild, back-and-forth finish in Seattle, Darnold delivered a clutch two-point conversion pass to Saubert in overtime, sealing a dramatic 38-37 win for the Seahawks over the Rams. And just like that, the NFC West-and the race for the conference’s top seed-got a whole lot more interesting.
George Kittle summed it up with a post on X: “Niner legend Eric Saubert for the W!!!” That might’ve been tongue-in-cheek, but the implications of Saubert’s game-winning grab are very real for both the Seahawks and the 49ers.
Let’s break it down.
NFC West Shake-Up
With the win, the Seahawks move to 12-3, vaulting them to the top of the division. The Rams fall to 11-4, and the 49ers-who sit at 10-4 heading into Monday night’s matchup in Indianapolis-suddenly find themselves with a clear path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
All they have to do? Win out.
Easier said than done, of course. But if San Francisco can take care of business in their final three games, they could leapfrog both division rivals and claim the top spot-just like they did in 2019 and 2023, seasons that ended in Super Bowl appearances.
And here’s the kicker: the regular season finale between the Seahawks and 49ers at Levi’s Stadium could end up being the de facto NFC title game. That’s not hyperbole-it’s just how tight this race has become.
The Road to Santa Clara
Richard Sherman, who knows a thing or two about both franchises, put it plainly on Amazon Prime Video’s postgame show: “If they handle business and the Seahawks handle business, that game in Santa Clara at Levi’s Stadium will be the game of the year and determine the (No.) 1 seed. That’s how crazy this season has been.”
Crazy is right. Levi’s Stadium is not only hosting that potential Week 18 showdown-it’s also the site of Super Bowl LX. And thanks to the Rams’ late-game collapse, the 49ers’ odds of playing for a title at home just got a whole lot better.
The Rams Let One Slip
This one will sting in Los Angeles. The Rams were up 30-14 in the fourth quarter and still led 37-30 in overtime after Matthew Stafford’s third touchdown pass and a 41-yard catch-and-run by Puka Nacua. But they couldn’t close the door.
Enter Darnold and Saubert.
Darnold, who backed up Brock Purdy during the Niners’ Super Bowl run two seasons ago, was cool under pressure. Saubert, who had just come off Injured Reserve and hadn’t caught a pass all game, made the one that mattered most. It was a full-circle moment for two players who once wore red and gold, now delivering a win that could end up helping their former team.
Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald handed Saubert a game ball in the locker room, and the tight end’s emotional response on Prime Video said it all: “I’ve been so many places. It’s been such a long journey for me, man.
To come to a place that embraced me like you guys have, I love you guys. Keep on rolling.”
What’s Next?
The 49ers still have work to do. First up is a Monday night road test against the Colts (8-6), followed by a home game against the NFC North-leading Bears (10-4) on December 28. Then comes the potential heavyweight bout with Seattle in Week 18.
Right now, San Francisco holds the NFC’s No. 6 seed, sitting behind the Rams and just ahead of the Packers (9-4-1). But the margin for error is razor-thin, and every snap from here on out matters.
As tight end George Kittle put it earlier this week: “The whole team is more just focused on, ‘Hey, how do we beat the Colts?’ And then whatever happens after that happens after that. It’s fun to play football that means something.”
And it absolutely does. Since 2022, only the No. 1 seed gets the coveted wild-card bye. That means one less game to play and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs-massive advantages in a conference this competitive.
Seahawks in the Driver’s Seat-for Now
With Thursday’s win, the Seahawks clinched a playoff spot and now have a 52% chance to lock up the No. 1 seed, according to NFL’s NextGen Stats. They’ll head to Carolina next to face the 7-7 Panthers, then finish the regular season at Levi’s Stadium in a game that could decide it all.
The Rams, meanwhile, saw their odds fall to 21%. Their final two games are at Atlanta (5-9) and at home against the Cardinals (3-11). Not impossible, but they no longer control their own destiny.
The Long View
Of the 49ers’ eight Super Bowl appearances, they’ve been the No. 1 seed in all but two-1988 and 2012-and still won the NFC both times. So yes, history says they can do it the hard way. But make no mistake: with the bye week now reserved for just one team, the top seed is more valuable than ever.
And thanks to a pair of familiar faces in new uniforms-Darnold and Saubert-the 49ers’ path just got a little clearer.
As Al Michaels said during the broadcast, “Do you want to know something crazy? The winner of this game has the path (to the No. 1 seed) if they win out. Do you realize the 49ers, if the Rams lose tonight, the 49ers could wind up 13-4, these teams could wind up 13-4, and the tiebreak would go to San Francisco… Wouldn’t that be crazy?”
Crazy? Maybe. But in this NFC playoff race, crazy is starting to feel like the new normal.