The 49ers are heading into a familiar kind of test in Week 4, and for the first time since Week 1, they’re doing it as underdogs. San Francisco is getting 3 points against the Seattle Seahawks on FanDuel Sportsbook, with the total sitting at 47.5.
That number stands out a little, especially when you look back at how San Francisco’s offense looked in the last two meetings with Seattle last season. But this isn’t quite the same setup. George Kittle was out for the Divisional round, Trent Williams didn’t play in the final regular-season matchup, and Mike Evans wasn’t on the roster.
There’s also a broader shift worth watching. Last year, over a four-game stretch, the 49ers ranked 22nd in EPA per play at -0.04, even though they were fourth in success rate at 47.2. This season, through four games, they’ve jumped to the top of the league in EPA per play at 0.25 and also lead the NFL in success rate at 53.1%.
Seattle, though, has been plenty sharp on the other side of the ball. Mike MacDonald has kept that defense humming after a season in which the Seahawks were already historically strong against the run. So far, they’re second in the league in EPA per play and success rate, tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions, and they’ve given up the second-fewest yards before contact.
The recent box scores don’t tell the full story for either team. The 49ers’ game against the Broncos finished 3-3 late in the third quarter, and Brock Purdy had roughly 100 passing yards at that point. Seattle’s 30-23 win over the Chargers looked comfortable, but it was 27-6 midway through the third, and Los Angeles had already gone nine possessions, thrown two interceptions, and still hadn’t found the end zone.
Even with the familiarity between these teams, that history only goes so far. Brock Purdy isn’t Justin Herbert, and Kyle Shanahan isn’t Mike McDaniel. Shanahan even joked after last Super Bowl that you shouldn’t interview him about Seattle after his offenses failed to find the end zone.
In Other News...
49ers Got The Kyle Juszczyk Injury News They Desperately Needed
Kyle Juszczyks knee injury looked far worse in the moment, but the 49ers avoided the kind of outcome that can reshape a season. The Pro Bowl fullback was hurt against the Broncos and later learned the MRI showed no ligament damage, easing fears around a play that had plenty of people bracing for a longer absence.
Juszczyk is still expected to miss two to three weeks after suffering a hyperextended knee, capsule sprain and minor bone bruise, which likely rules him out for the Seahawks game. Even so, the door is open for a return before the end of October, a useful bit of news for a San Francisco offense that leans on his versatility and physical presence in the run game and around the goal line. [Read more 🡒]
John Lynch Could Have One More Aggressive Move In Mind
The 49ers have been surviving the kind of stretch that tends to test a rosters depth as much as its talent, stacking wins even while dealing with injuries that have complicated the week-to-week picture. That kind of success can make a front office hesitate, but it can also sharpen the sense that the current group is close enough to justify a little more help before the season gets much deeper.
With the November 10 trade deadline looming, John Lynch could still have one aggressive move left to make if he decides the run should be supported rather than merely managed. The names tied to that conversation point in a few different directions, from defensive tackle Daron Payne to wide receiver Quentin Johnston to edge rushers Za'Darius Smith and Khalil Mack, which says plenty about the range of ways San Francisco could try to bolster itself without waiting for the market to come to it. [Read more 🡒]
49ers Injury Report Brings Early Concern And One Intriguing Possibility
The first Week 5 practice brought an early dose of concern for San Francisco, with five players sitting out as the 49ers started preparing for Seattle. Nick Bosa, James Thompson, Kyle Juszczyk, Marques Sigle, and Upton Stout were all absent, while Mykel Williams, Mike Evans and Kaelon Black took part on a limited basis as the team tried to sort through an injury list that already had some familiar names on it.
Williams is the most intriguing piece of the group, since a return to the field could be on the table after he worked his way back from injury. Coach Kyle Shanahan also said Stout is day-to-day with a shoulder issue, which at least gives the 49ers some reason to keep a close eye on the week rather than assume the early absences will define it. [Read more 🡒]