ESPN’s latest Football Power Index simulation has the 49ers back where they want to be: sitting atop the NFC West and positioned as one of the league’s best teams entering 2026.
The projection model, which ESPN says uses several metrics and forecasts, gives San Francisco a strong preseason outlook. The 49ers are ranked fifth overall ahead of Week 1, with a 64% chance to reach the playoffs and an expectation of 10 wins. Those numbers are tied for seventh-best in the NFL.
Seth Walder ran nearly 10,000 simulations for the exercise, and the version he highlighted had the 49ers finishing tied with the Detroit Lions at 13-4 - the best record in the league. San Francisco owned the tiebreaker, which pushed Kyle Shanahan’s team to the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, while also knocking off the Rams and the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks for the division crown.
The path to that result was a familiar scramble in the NFC West. After 12 weeks, the Seahawks, 49ers and Rams were all 9-2, with only three of their six combined losses coming against teams outside the division.
The race stayed tight all the way to Week 18, when San Francisco and Seattle entered their finales at 12-4 and Los Angeles sat one game behind at 11-5. Then the Rams blasted the Seahawks 37-8, while the 49ers handled the last-place Cardinals 30-3 to lock up both the division and the NFC’s top seed.
Seattle and Los Angeles were left with the No. 5 and No. 6 spots.
That set up a playoff bracket that quickly turned into a heavyweight fight.
In the Wild Card round, the Lions beat the Packers 27-24, the Rams edged the Buccaneers 27-24 and the Cowboys took down the Seahawks 31-19. That left Jared Goff and Detroit moving on, Matthew Stafford and Los Angeles surviving, and Dak Prescott’s Cowboys punching through Seattle’s defense.
The Divisional Round brought the Rams to Levi’s Stadium, and San Francisco’s season ended there in this simulation. Los Angeles won 24-21 in what Walder called the Myles Garrett game, with the pass rusher piling up 2.5 sacks and forcing a tipped pass that was intercepted. Brock Purdy and the 49ers came up short, and the Rams advanced to the NFC Championship Game.
But the run stopped there for Los Angeles. The Rams, despite another strong postseason showing, fell to the Lions 20-17 in the conference title game.
Aidan Hutchinson, who would later be named Defensive Player of the Year before the Super Bowl, was the difference-maker, while Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown connected for two touchdowns to send Detroit through.
Walder said his NFC Championship prediction was Cowboys-49ers, though neither team survived the Divisional Round in this particular simulation. He also suggested that the top of the NFC could be crowded again, with the 49ers, Cowboys, Rams and Lions all carrying enough offense and defensive talent to stay in the mix.
His bigger point was simple: it may all come down to who stays healthy. Detroit and San Francisco were hit hard by injuries last year, while Los Angeles stayed among the healthiest teams in the league. This season, the luck of the injury draw could decide who rises and who falls.
In Other News...
Grant Cohn Is Somehow Becoming Part Of The 49ers Opener Story
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His social media posts about local food and cultural stops have caught on with audiences well beyond the standard football crowd, turning a routine road assignment into something of a sideshow. Cohn has long been a polarizing figure around the 49ers because of his public clashes with players and the confrontational style he often brings to his coverage, and now even that reputation is being folded into a story that started with the opener itself. [Read more 🡒]
Deebo Samuels New Role Puts 49ers Rookie In Week 1 Spotlight
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Deebo Samuels designation as the primary kick returner adds another layer to the picture, hinting at a reduced load on offense and opening the door for Stribling to see real early-season snaps. For a San Francisco passing game already adjusting on the fly, the rookies next chance may come right away, and it will be worth watching how quickly the staff leans into that opportunity. [Read more 🡒]
49ers First Injury Report Raises An Early Lineup Concern
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For now, the encouraging part is who was not there. Christian McCaffrey was absent from the report, and Mike Evans also did not appear, which helps keep at least some of the focus on the players who are actually dealing with issues. Still, Collins new injury designation stands out as the one to monitor, because even in September, the 49ers know how quickly a depth concern can become a bigger storyline if it lingers. [Read more 🡒]