Walker Buehler is headed into October with the same kind of edge that has followed him through most of his big-game career, and this time he’s carrying it into a Padres clubhouse that has spent the second half of the season looking nothing like a team sneaking in.
San Diego opens its postseason on Tuesday evening against the Chicago Cubs, and the mood around the club matches the numbers. The Padres were sitting at 50-53 on July 24.
Since then, they’ve ripped through the schedule and dropped only 18 games over their last 59. That kind of run changes everything.
It also means the Padres are no longer the team getting sized up - they’re the one doing the sizing up.
With 13 wins left to secure the first championship in franchise history, the message around the team seems simple: they’re not worrying about the matchup in front of them, only about keeping the production rolling.
Buehler, who signed a minor league deal before the season after passing on other MLB offers, saw enough of the Padres’ profile from the outside to understand why confidence is running high now. The right-hander spent years on the other side of October with the Dodgers, so he knows what a playoff exit looks like and what it takes to keep going deeper.
“What’s interesting is they’ve done this a lot,” Buehler said of the Padres. “Like this organization has had a lot of success.
… We feel like we’re as dangerous as any team that is out there, and not that I have any [expletive] all-world advice, but I’m excited to be on this side of it in some way. You know what I mean?
And if we play good, we think we can beat everybody.”
That kind of belief fits Buehler’s track record. He has repeatedly found another level when the calendar flips to October, helping the Dodgers win two titles and even earning a save in the 2024 World Series after pitching in relief on one day of rest - the first save of his career.
His first season in San Diego followed a familiar arc. He opened with a 5.36 ERA through the first half, then sharpened late and posted a 3.62 ERA over his final 13 starts while going 4-1.
The pattern isn’t new. In 2019, after making his first All-Star team, Buehler logged a 3.26 ERA over 30 starts with 215 strikeouts and just 37 walks. Then he was even better in the postseason, allowing only one earned run and five total hits across two starts.
The next year, he put together a 3.44 ERA in eight starts during the regular season, then cut that number to 1.80 across five playoff starts and 25 innings, including a 10-strikeout performance in Game 3 of the World Series.
Even an injury-hit 2024 season ended with Buehler doing what he has so often done: finishing strong when the pressure peaked. He posted a 5.38 ERA overall, including a 4.44 mark in his final five starts before October, then lowered his postseason ERA to 3.60 while helping bring home another World Series trophy.
His last three outings of that postseason were especially sharp. He threw 10 scoreless innings in the NLCS and World Series, though a six-run start against the Padres in the NLDS was the lone rough spot.
Now he won’t have to face San Diego this year. If his October history is any indication, that’s a good problem for everyone else.
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