The Robbie Ray deal already has San Francisco seeing a payoff.
When the Giants sent the former Cy Young Award winner to the San Diego Padres on August 3, 2026, president of baseball operations Buster Posey got back two prospects: right-handed pitcher Miguel Mendez and 17-year-old infielder Joniel Hernandez. At the time, Mendez was San Diego’s fourth-ranked prospect, while Hernandez checked in ninth in the Padres system.
Mendez is the one making noise now.
At the Arizona Fall League, the 24-year-old has been showing exactly the kind of arm talent that can change how a trade looks in a hurry. In Saturday’s outing for the Scottsdale Scorpions against the Peoria Javelinas - and against his former Padres teammates - Mendez struck out five over three innings and gave up one run on a solo homer. His fastball touched 98.2 mph, and some of his best velocity came against players from his old organization.
The breaking ball may have been even better. MLB.com’s Sam Dykstra reported that Mendez got seven swings and misses on eight swings against his slider. Through his first three AFL starts, he has piled up 12 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings, putting him near the top of the league in that early stretch.
That start matters even more because Mendez missed a big chunk of the regular season with neck and shoulder injuries. He threw only 51 2/3 innings all year, so every inning in the AFL is part of rebuilding lost time and sharpening his game.
The Giants’ decision to move Ray was a meaningful one. He had been one of the most reliable starters in the organization and went into the trade with a 10-6 record and a 3.08 ERA in 22 appearances, 21 of them starts. But with San Francisco dealing with pitching problems of its own, and with the club staring down the reality of possibly losing Ray in free agency, Posey opted to turn one established arm into a pair of young pieces.
There are still plenty of unknowns with Mendez. He has worked as a starter throughout his career, but if he can’t land a dependable third pitch, his stuff could fit in the bullpen as well. Either way, the upside is there.
He is not close to helping the big club yet, and the Giants have every reason to handle his development carefully after the injuries. San Francisco is also dealing with some uncertainty in its pitching pipeline for 2027, with Carson Whisenhunt, Trevor McDonald, and others still recovering from major elbow injuries.
It is still too early to hand out a winner on the trade. But for now, the Giants have to like what they’re seeing from the pitcher they landed.
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