The Padres have spent much of this season bouncing from one extreme to another, but they’ve put themselves in position where the finish line actually matters. After a sluggish start, a hot stretch, a midseason dip that had people wondering if they might even sell before the trade deadline, and then a sharp rebound in late July, San Diego is back in the hunt for a postseason berth.
Now the whole thing comes down to the final wild-card spot, and ESPN’s MLB experts are leaning heavily toward the Padres.
Of the 15 experts polled, 12 picked San Diego to grab the NL’s sixth seed over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jorge Castillo pointed to the turnaround in the lineup as the biggest reason for that confidence: "It comes down to the Padres' offense.
For most of the season, San Diego's bats were inexplicably muted," ESPN's Jorge Castillo wrote. "Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't hit his first home run until May 30.
Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill weren't producing. The Padres ranked 24th in the majors in wRC+ through July 23.
Since then, they're fourth."
The numbers on the race are tight, but they do tilt San Diego’s way. The Padres hold a half-game edge over Arizona, with 16 games left on their schedule compared with 15 for the Diamondbacks. ESPN’s odds give San Diego a 57.1% chance to clinch the wild card, while Arizona sits at 46.3%.
The schedules are close too, though Arizona’s is a touch softer. The Diamondbacks’ remaining slate grades out at .517, just ahead of the Padres’ .519.
That makes the final weekend loom large. San Diego and Arizona will wrap up the regular season with a three-game series at Petco Park from Sept. 25-27, and that set could end up deciding everything. The two teams are tied 5-5 in their 10 meetings this season, which only adds more weight to what’s coming.
Before that showdown, the Padres still have plenty to navigate. They’ll play all four of their division opponents to finish the year, with a three-game series against the Miami Marlins from Sept. 18-20 in the middle of that stretch.
In Other News...
Padres Infield Plans Just Got More Interesting With One Star Linked
The Padres are already expected to chase starting pitching in the 2026-27 offseason, but a new layer has crept into the conversation around their roster plans. CBS Sports analyst Mike Axisa has floated San Diego as a potential landing spot for Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., whose mix of athleticism and left-handed pop has kept him on the radar while he plays the 2026 season on a one-year deal in New York.
For a Padres club that always has to balance urgency with long-term fit, Chisholm is the kind of name that naturally changes the way people look at the infield picture. He has been productive enough offensively and solid enough defensively to draw attention beyond the Bronx, and San Diego is not the only club in the mix, with the Texas Rangers also mentioned. The real question is whether the Padres want to make room for another impact infielder while they are also sorting out their pitching priorities. [Read more 🡒]
Nick Pivetta Just Made The Padres' October Rotation Decision Much Harder
Nick Pivettas return in September has given the Padres exactly the kind of late-season pitching problem teams hope for, even if it is a tricky one to sort out. San Diegos Opening Day starter was out for most of the 2026 season with a strained right flexor in his elbow, but he came back with a strong outing against the Nationals and immediately reinserted himself into the October conversation.
Now the Padres have more viable starters than rotation spots to comfortably hand out, and that puts some pressure on recent additions Robbie Ray and Casey Mize after uneven stretches with the club. Michael King and Walker Buehler are also expected to be part of the postseason mix, which leaves the Padres weighing form, health and trust at the exact moment when every start matters most. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Keep Making The Wild Card Race Feel Way Too Stressful
The Padres made it look comfortable early, then turned the back half of Wednesdays game into another reminder of how tight the National League wild card picture has become. San Diego got long balls from Rafael Devers and Jackson Merrill, plus a safety squeeze from Jake Cronenworth, to build enough cushion against the Giants and keep control of a game that mattered just as much for the standings as it did in the box score.
Fernando Tatis Jr. also chipped in with a solo homer in the sixth to help stretch the margin before the Giants started to chip away. Even after the late push, the Padres were able to hang on and keep their spot in the third wild card race, which is where every win feels like it can change the mood of the week. [Read more 🡒]