The Padres made a handful of roster moves centered on Casey Mize, and the biggest one sends the right-hander to the 15-day injured list with a right ankle sprain.
Mize started against the Diamondbacks yesterday and got hit hard, lasting four innings while allowing seven earned runs on seven hits, including three home runs. His ankle has been an issue for a while now.
He first sprained it on August 22 when he slipped on the dugout steps and exited after 2 2/3 innings. Since then, he’s made six starts and has given up nearly eight earned runs per nine, along with eight homers, or 2.70 HR/9.
As Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune noted, Mize said in his postgame comments yesterday that the ankle was still bothering him a month later.
With Mize sidelined, Gavin Sheets comes back from the 10-day IL after missing just under a month with a left foot sprain. Sheets has been an average bat overall, hitting .211/.313/.388 in 412 plate appearances, but he’s been much better against right-handed pitching with a 114 wRC+ in those matchups. Since Ty France is handling first base right now, Sheets is likely to work at DH or maybe left field against righties in the postseason.
The Padres also recalled right-hander Griffin Canning from the Arizona Complex League and optioned lefty Kyle Hart to that level. Separately, right-hander Alek Jacob cleared outright waivers and was assigned outright to the Complex League after being designated for assignment earlier this week. Because Jacob was already off the roster, those moves are 40-man neutral.
Mize’s injury leaves San Diego without him until Game 1 of the NL Championship Series, if the club gets that far. The Padres have already punched their playoff ticket and enter today as the top Wild Card seed in the Senior Circuit. They can clinch that spot with a win over the Diamondbacks tonight, which would also give them home field advantage in the Wild Card Series.
Michael King and Nick Pivetta are set to lead the rotation in that three-game series, while Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray are competing for the third spot. Ray has not been sharp in nine starts since arriving from the Giants at the deadline, while Buehler carries a 4.56 ERA on the season but has posted a 3.24 ERA over his last eight starts, six of which went at least five innings. That gives Buehler the edge, which would push Ray to the bullpen.
For Mize, the regular season ends with 131 1/3 innings, a 4.32 ERA, a 20.0% strikeout rate, and a 6.9% walk rate. Even with the late slump, he still profiles as a solid mid-rotation starter and is expected to draw a multi-year deal in free agency this winter.
Canning had agreed to an option three days ago when Jason Adam came off the 60-day IL, and he would have had to stay down for at least 15 days if Mize hadn’t landed on the injured list. He has a 22.5% strikeout rate and a 46.5% ground ball rate in 29 appearances, including 11 starts, but his run prevention numbers have been rough: a 5.57 ERA and a 4.20 SIERA. He has been better in relief than in the rotation, though he still looks like a long shot to make the postseason bullpen, especially with nominal starter Randy Vásquez also in the mix for a relief job.
Hart’s demotion clears space for a fresh arm after he allowed three earned runs in an inning of relief yesterday. He had carried a 3.77 ERA and a 50.3% ground ball rate through the end of August, but September has gone sideways, with 11 earned runs allowed in 6 2/3 innings and seven walks. Like Canning, he’s probably on the outside looking in for October, though his ground-ball profile and 22.0% strikeout rate could still make him a candidate to step in if injury creates an opening.
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