Casey Mize’s night Friday did not just go sideways. It slammed the door on the idea that he belongs on the Padres’ Wild Card Series roster.
He got the game off to the worst possible start, with his first pitch turned into a Lars Nootbaar home run. From there, the Diamondbacks kept piling on.
Mize lasted four innings, allowed seven earned runs, gave up three homers, walked two and struck out only one before his night ended in Arizona’s 11-4 win. San Diego, meanwhile, missed its first chance to lock up the No. 4 seed and ensure the entire Wild Card Series would be played at Petco Park.
That outing fit the larger picture the Padres have been staring at for almost two months. Since arriving from Detroit, Mize has made 10 starts and posted a 7.46 ERA over 44 2/3 innings.
He has surrendered 13 home runs and 19 walks, while recording just 25 strikeouts. His season ERA sits at 4.32, but that number is propped up by the strong first half he put together with the Tigers.
The version San Diego has gotten in brown and gold has been one of the least effective starters in the sport.
In a three-game postseason series, that matters.
The Padres gave up then-No. 2 prospect Kash Mayfield and Jackson Wolf to get Mize and Gage Workman from Detroit, and that trade will be debated for a long time if Mayfield develops into a frontline starter. But that doesn’t mean Mize has to be on the roster for the Wild Card round.
Those prospects are already gone. Keeping Mize for the series won’t change that.
It would only turn a trade deadline move into a postseason gamble.
A.J. Preller dealt for the pitcher who had a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts with Detroit.
What the Padres have now is a limited version who cannot command his pitches the way he needs to. Those are not the same player, and the decision should be based on the one available today.
After the loss, Mize was blunt about what’s going on. He said the right ankle sprain he suffered in August is keeping him from using his lower half properly, and he described his current form as “nowhere close to good enough.”
That’s the key. If the pitcher himself says the ankle is holding him back, there’s no reason to pretend otherwise.
Craig Stammen backed him afterward, and Mize’s résumé still says more than this stretch does. But the ankle is the reality the Padres have to evaluate.
Leaving him off the roster would not be a punishment. It would be an accurate read on what his body can give them right now. Asking him to find his delivery in a best-of-three series would be too big a risk.
There isn’t an obvious bullpen answer here, either. Michael King is set for Game 1, and Nick Pivetta and Walker Buehler have made stronger claims for the other starts. Moving Mize into relief would still require him to throw strikes and work out of trouble, and his recent numbers do not show that he can do it with any consistency.
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