The Padres may already be staring at a major hole in their rotation this winter, and Michael King sits right at the center of it.
King signed a three-year, $75 million deal with San Diego last offseason, but the contract gave him opt-outs after the first and second seasons. After year one, ESPN’s Jeff Passan is betting the right-hander walks away from what’s left.
Passan is predicting King will opt out and head to free agency rather than stay on the two-year, $58 million portion of the deal covering 2027 and 2028. There’s also a $5 million buyout attached, which makes the decision even more straightforward from King’s side.
"The 31-year-old King is the other candidate along with Taira to stand first in line behind Skubal, and it makes sense for him to forgo the final two years and $58 million on his deal -- particularly with the $5 million buyout he'd cash in," Passan writes. "Will he opt-out: Yes.
The numbers this season help explain why. King has posted a 3.00 ERA with a 10-9 record and 4.1 bWAR for the Padres, production that has put him in position to chase a bigger payday on the open market.
A two-year, $58 million pact is hardly small change, but King could do better if bidding gets competitive. A deal worth around $30 million per year would be a clear target, though even a longer contract with a lower average annual value would still likely make sense for him.
That possibility is helped by the shape of the pitching market. The free-agent class isn’t considered especially strong after Tarik Skubal, and King may be the second-best starter available.
If Passan’s prediction holds, San Diego won’t just be looking at starting pitching help this offseason - it’ll be looking to replace one of its best arms.
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