The Padres can do enough in the standings and still wind up on the outside looking in when it comes to home-field advantage. That’s the ugly twist here: even a 90-win season could leave San Diego as the NL’s No. 6 seed if the results break a certain way.
The setup is pretty straightforward. As of September 22, the Padres and Cubs were both 87-69, with the Phillies one game behind at 86-70.
Each team has six games left. If San Diego and Chicago both go 3-3 while Philadelphia goes 4-2, all three clubs would finish 90-72.
In that scenario, the tiebreakers would push the Cubs to No. 4 and the Phillies to No. 5.
The Padres would drop to No. 6.
Chicago would own the edge by going 5-1 against San Diego and 6-1 against Philadelphia, while the Phillies’ six-game sweep of the Padres would give them the next spot.
That matters because the higher seed gets every game of a best-of-three Wild Card Series at home, and the Padres have clearly been better in their own park. Through Monday, they were 49-29 at Petco Park and 38-40 on the road.
If the postseason began today and San Diego ended up sixth, the road would run through Atlanta. Win there, and the Dodgers would be next. A fifth seed would mean a trip to the club finishing fourth - in this case, the Cubs - with Milwaukee waiting after that.
Atlanta is already lining up its likely Wild Card rotation, with Chris Sale set for Game 1 and Tyler Mahle for Game 2.
So the path is there, and so is the problem. The Padres need to finish stronger than Chicago and at least as well as Philadelphia over their final six games. They get three at Dodger Stadium and three against Arizona at Petco to sort it out.
In Other News...
Padres Just Made A Rotation Move For Their Biggest Moment
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The timing fits the moment San Diego is in, with the Padres tied with the Chicago Cubs for the top Wild Card position and every day now carrying added weight. King has been one of the teams steadiest arms this season, and the decision to hold him back underlines how much the Padres are thinking about the immediate future, not just the next turn through the rotation. [Read more 🡒]
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Casey Mize has only added another layer of uncertainty since joining San Diego, as his work has not inspired much confidence about where he fits when the games get bigger. With the Padres holding the second NL Wild Card spot, the organization has time to keep evaluating options, but the current rotation picture looks anything but settled. [Read more 🡒]
Joe Musgroves October Outlook Just Got More Concerning For Padres Fans
Joe Musgroves path back to the Padres has been slower than anyone hoped, and with October approaching, the latest update only adds to the uncertainty. He has not faced hitters since his last minor league rehab outing on Aug. 27 and remains on the injured list while working back from the Tommy John surgery he had in October 2024.
Manager Craig Stammen said Musgrove is still playing catch and trying to make it back this season, but the comeback has clearly taken longer than expected. San Diego has already given him plenty of time to return, and the most realistic path, if he does get back, appears to be in a relief role rather than a spot in the rotation. [Read more 🡒]