Padres Sign Miguel Andujar: A Low-Risk Bet on Contact and Consistency
The Padres made a quiet but intriguing move on Wednesday, signing outfielder Miguel Andujar to a one-year, $4 million deal for the 2026 season. It’s not the kind of splash that dominates headlines in February, but it’s the kind of calculated addition that could pay real dividends if things break right.
Andujar, now 30, is coming off his most productive offensive season since his breakout rookie campaign with the Yankees in 2018. After bouncing around a bit in recent years, he found his rhythm in 2025-first with the A’s, then with the Reds-and now lands in San Diego with a chance to carve out a meaningful role in a lineup that could use a bit more consistency.
A Tale of Two Halves
Andujar’s 2025 season was a tale of two cities-literally. He started the year in Oakland, where he posted a solid .765 OPS over 60 games.
That alone was a step forward from his .697 mark the year before. But it was after a trade to Cincinnati at the deadline that Andujar really caught fire, hitting .359 over 34 games while holding his own against both lefties and righties.
That late-season surge is what the Padres are hoping to bottle up. On a short-term, low-cost deal, there’s little downside here.
The upside? A high-contact hitter who, when locked in, can be a tough out and a sneaky contributor near the top or bottom of the order.
The Analytics Paint a More Cautious Picture
But let’s pump the brakes before penciling Andujar in for another .800+ OPS. The advanced metrics tell a more nuanced story.
According to Statcast, Andujar’s 2025 numbers were among the most “fortunate” in baseball. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA)-a stat that accounts for quality of contact-was just .298, well below league average. For context, Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres’ offensive centerpiece, posted a .370 xwOBA last year.
Andujar’s hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity all sat in the bottom 20% of the league. That’s not usually the profile of a guy putting up an OPS north of .800. He also chased nearly 36% of pitches outside the strike zone, a sign of aggressive-if not always disciplined-approach at the plate.
So how did he defy the odds? One key change: he started swinging earlier in counts.
By jumping on first pitches, Andujar shortened his at-bats, avoided strikeouts, and put more balls in play. And when you put the ball in play often enough-especially in hitter-friendly parks-good things can happen.
Elite Contact Skills Still Carry Weight
Even if the power metrics raise eyebrows, Andujar’s bat-to-ball ability is the real deal. He whiffed on just 17.8% of his swings last season, putting him among the league’s best in that department.
His chase contact rate-how often he connects on pitches outside the zone-is 10% better than the league average. That’s a rare skill in today’s game, where strikeouts are sky-high and contact hitters are a dying breed.
Andujar struck out in fewer than 15% of his plate appearances last year, a number that forces pitchers to beat him with something other than pure stuff. His .318 batting average in 2025 wasn’t just a mirage-it was a product of relentless contact and making pitchers work.
The Padres didn’t necessarily need another power bat-though they wouldn’t say no to one-but a guy who can hit .300 and keep the line moving has value, especially in a lineup that’s already got some big boppers. If Andujar can hover around a .750 OPS while maintaining his elite contact profile, that’s a win for San Diego.
Ballpark Matters: From Launch Pads to Petco
One thing that can’t be ignored: Andujar played his 2025 home games in two of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. First, with the A’s at Sutter Health Park-a temporary minor league home with cozy dimensions and weather that helps the ball fly. Then, after the trade, he landed in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, which Statcast ranks as the second-most favorable park for hitters.
The results? A slugging percentage that jumped from .377 in 2024 to .544 in his short stint with the Reds. That’s not just incremental improvement-that’s a full-on transformation.
But now he’s headed to Petco Park, and that’s a different story. San Diego’s home field has long been known as a pitcher’s park, where fly balls go to die and slugging percentages take a hit. Andujar slugged .503 at home last year and .437 on the road-don’t be surprised if those numbers take a dip in 2026.
He’ll need to lean heavily on his contact skills to stay productive in San Diego. The power might not travel, but if he can keep putting the ball in play and avoid strikeouts, he can still be a valuable piece in the Padres’ lineup.
Final Thoughts
This isn’t a blockbuster move, but it’s a smart one. The Padres are betting on a player who reinvented himself last year and found success by doing what he does best: putting the bat on the ball. There’s risk here-especially if the underlying metrics catch up to him-but on a one-year, $4 million deal, the reward far outweighs it.
If Andujar can bring even 80% of his 2025 production to San Diego, he’ll be a key contributor. And if he regresses a bit but still gives the Padres a reliable contact bat, that’s still a win. Either way, it’s a low-risk swing worth taking.