The Padres are rolling the dice this December, and while it’s not a blockbuster move, it’s the kind of quiet gamble that could pay off in a big way. San Diego has signed right-hander Triston McKenzie to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training - a classic low-risk, high-upside play. And given McKenzie’s past flashes of brilliance, it’s a move that deserves a closer look.
Let’s start with what McKenzie has been - and what he still might be. Since debuting in 2020, he’s logged 442 big-league innings with a 4.07 ERA.
That’s not eye-popping, but it’s solid. And in 2022, he was more than solid - he was electric.
A 2.96 ERA, nearly a strikeout per inning, and almost 4 wins above replacement. That season, he looked every bit the part of a potential frontline starter.
He was commanding the zone, missing bats, and chewing up innings like a guy ready to anchor a rotation.
But baseball doesn’t always follow a linear path, and McKenzie’s last three seasons have been a reminder of just how quickly things can unravel. Since 2023, he’s posted a 5.46 ERA across just over 97 innings.
Injuries and inconsistency have kept him from finding any kind of rhythm, and in 2025, his big league action was limited to just 5 2/3 innings - during which he gave up seven earned runs. That’s a brutal line, no way around it.
And yet, there’s still something here. The arm talent hasn’t disappeared.
This is a pitcher who once struck out 10 in a single outing just a couple seasons ago. The raw tools that made him such a tantalizing prospect are still buried in there somewhere.
The question is whether the Padres - and more specifically, pitching coach Ruben Niebla - can help him unearth them again.
That’s where this deal starts to make a lot of sense. Niebla, who knows McKenzie well from their shared time in Cleveland, has built a reputation as a pitching whisperer.
He’s helped plenty of arms get back on track, and if there’s a coach who can help McKenzie reassemble the pieces, it’s him. The Padres are betting on that connection - and on their own infrastructure - to make this work.
There are no guarantees here. Cleveland doesn’t give up on pitchers easily, and if McKenzie couldn’t stick in their system - known for developing and refining arms - it’s fair to wonder how much is left in the tank.
But that’s the beauty of this kind of move. There’s no pressure, no huge financial commitment, just a chance to see what’s still there.
Spring Training will be the proving ground. If McKenzie shows even a glimpse of his old form - the sharp command, the deceptive fastball, the swing-and-miss curve - he could force his way into the Padres’ 2026 plans.
And if he doesn’t? No harm done.
These are the kind of moves that often fly under the radar in December but can quietly reshape a roster by the time the season rolls around.
For San Diego, it’s a smart play. A lottery ticket with a real chance to hit.