Joe Musgrove’s return gives the Padres something to dream on, but it should not be the centerpiece of their 2027 rotation plan.
That’s the balancing act for San Diego this winter: enjoy the possibility that Musgrove can help again, while making sure the roster does not lean on him as if he’s already locked into a full season’s workload. His three postseason innings offered plenty to feel good about. They do not amount to a foundation.
Musgrove missed the 2025 and 2026 regular seasons while coming back from Tommy John surgery, then resurfaced for those three postseason innings. A.J. Preller has already admitted it’s hard to expect a full starting workload from him next year, and the front office has to treat that as a guiding principle when it starts shaping the staff.
The rotation picture is already unsettled. Michael King is expected to exercise his opt-out, and the club is still waiting on Nick Pivetta’s club-option decision. Beyond that, the current group on paper includes Musgrove, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears and Jhony Brito.
That leaves starting pitching sitting near the top of Preller’s to-do list. The Padres need more than one arm here, and they need those additions even if Musgrove arrives in camp looking sharp and feeling strong.
The safest path is to bring in reliable innings and let Musgrove’s recovery determine the rest. If he earns a rotation spot and his workload grows as the season goes on, that’s a bonus. It could even give San Diego a fresh arm later in the year or another piece to work with at the trade deadline.
But the Padres also have to be ready for the other outcome. If Musgrove needs more time, or his buildup moves slower than hoped, they need a plan that does not depend on scrambling to cover his innings. The club has to be able to adjust his role without the rest of the rotation falling apart around him.
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