Padres’ Rotation Has Upside - But It’s Built on a Lot of “Ifs”
As the San Diego Padres head into spring training in Peoria, they can line up their starting rotation on paper and feel decent about it - maybe even optimistic. But let’s not kid ourselves: this whole thing hinges on how much they can actually count on Joe Musgrove and Michael King to deliver consistent, reliable starts. And until that question is answered, the rotation remains a work in progress.
Let’s start with the good news. Nick Pivetta looks like the logical Opening Day starter.
He’s coming off a strong finish to last season and brings a level of stability the Padres need at the top. Randy Vásquez, meanwhile, has pitched his way out of the “placeholder” label.
He’s earned a legitimate spot in the back end, and he’s no longer just a depth option - he’s part of the plan.
But behind those two, things get murky fast.
Musgrove and King: The Big Variables
Joe Musgrove is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, and the Padres aren’t pretending otherwise. They’re openly managing his ramp-up with caution, and Musgrove himself has acknowledged he might be “slow-played” through the early part of the season. That could mean skipped starts or delayed outings - whatever it takes to keep him healthy for the long haul.
And that’s smart. But it also means the rotation is already leaning on contingency plans before a single pitch has been thrown.
Then there’s Michael King. He made just 15 starts last season, and while his upside is real, expecting him to immediately shoulder a full starter’s workload without any bumps is asking for trouble. You’re essentially daring the baseball gods to test your depth - and that’s rarely a winning bet.
The Fifth Spot: More Pressure Than Competition
That brings us to the fifth-starter spot, which is shaping up less like a fun spring training battle and more like a high-stakes insurance policy.
JP Sears is penciled in right now, but he’s not locking anything down just yet. Matt Waldron, Triston McKenzie, and Marco Gonzales are all in the mix, and while each has a path to being useful, they also come with plenty of volatility. There’s a real chance that some of these arms might not even be on the roster when the season opens.
This isn’t a group you build a rotation around - it’s a group you hope can hold the line until reinforcements arrive or the frontline guys find their rhythm. And that’s a risky way to start a season, especially when your team has postseason expectations.
The Missing Piece: A Reliable Innings-Eater
What the Padres really need isn’t another ace. They’ve got enough top-end potential. What they’re missing is a dependable, low-drama starter - someone who can take the ball every fifth day, give you six solid innings, and keep the bullpen from getting torched in April and May.
A guy like that doesn’t make headlines, but he makes a rotation work. And right now, the Padres are short on that kind of stability.
To be fair, A.J. Preller has made a habit of addressing this exact need late in the process.
In recent years, the Padres have added arms like Sean Manaea, Michael Wacha, Dylan Cease, and Nick Pivetta after camp opened. So it wouldn’t be surprising to see another move coming - it’s practically tradition at this point.
Bottom Line: High Ceiling, Low Margin for Error
On paper, the Padres’ rotation can absolutely work. If Musgrove stays healthy, if King handles the workload, if the fifth spot holds together - then yeah, this group can carry its weight.
But that’s a lot of “ifs” for a team that’s built around October ambitions.
The Padres don’t need perfection out of the gate. But they do need durability, reliability, and a little bit of luck. Because in a 162-game season, “everything going smoothly” is never the part you want to bet on.