Padres Rotation Gamble Could Leave A.J. Preller With Another Big Question

Can the Padres afford to gamble on Foster Griffin's promising pitch while mindful of Erick Fedde's cautionary tale?

The Padres can make a case for Foster Griffin. They can also make a case for why one signing won’t come close to finishing the job.

A projected three-year, $39 million deal would be a real commitment to a left-hander whose career got back on track after a stop in Japan. San Diego needs starting pitching, and getting in before the price climbs is exactly the kind of move a team in that spot should consider. The fit makes sense on the surface.

But Erick Fedde is the warning label.

Fedde rebuilt his career in Korea, came back to the majors with a strong 2024 season, then followed it with a 5.49 ERA in 2025. Clubs had every reason to think the breakthrough was real.

Holding onto it was the harder part. By the end of 2026, he was working as a reliever for the White Sox.

That’s why a Griffin signing can’t be treated like the end of the Padres’ rotation search. The upside is obvious, but so is the risk that a solid-looking investment turns into a problem if there’s no one ready behind him. Three guaranteed years would give San Diego plenty of time to find out whether the progress sticks.

Griffin has already done enough to earn real attention. He came back from Japan and put up a 3.06 ERA in 22 starts for Washington in 2026 before heading to Cleveland.

This isn’t some anonymous overseas flier. Big-league hitters have seen him, and he’s pitched well enough to enter this conversation.

At $13 million per year, the expectation would be straightforward: give the Padres steady innings, keep the game under control, and hold down a regular rotation spot. That’s a fair ask. It just can’t be the whole offseason plan.

San Diego still needs another established starter with Griffin, and it needs depth beyond the Opening Day five. Not spring-training lottery tickets.

Not a pile of invitations and hope. The Padres have to add more pitchers who can actually help.

Griffin should be judged on his stuff, his health and what he does on the mound. But the bigger picture matters too. A reasonable signing can become a roster headache fast when there isn’t enough pitching around it.

Three years and $39 million would stretch beyond the initial buzz of landing him. The Padres can like the annual number and still need A.J. Preller to leave room for another arm.

Griffin would make sense as part of a larger pitching push. Put him in a real rotation, keep the expectations grounded and give him support, and there’s plenty to like.

What can’t happen is pretending that one move solves everything.

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