Padres’ 2026 Rotation Outlook: A Steep Climb Ahead for San Diego’s Starting Staff
Padres fans, brace yourselves - the road ahead looks rough for San Diego’s starting rotation. After weathering a 2025 season filled with injuries and inconsistency, the Padres still managed to finish tied for fourth in the National League in opponent batting average (.237).
That’s no small feat considering the adversity they faced. But rather than building on that resilience, projections for 2026 suggest the rotation could take a major step back - and that’s putting it mildly.
According to FanGraphs, San Diego's starting rotation is projected to rank 25th across Major League Baseball. That’s deep in the bottom tier, grouped alongside teams like the Rockies, Cardinals, and White Sox - franchises that missed the postseason and are in various stages of retooling or rebuilding. So how did the Padres, a team that’s flirted with contention in recent years, end up in this spot?
Life After Cease: A Void in the Rotation
Let’s start with the departures. Dylan Cease is now a Toronto Blue Jay, and while his 2025 season wasn’t exactly lights-out, he was a dependable presence - a guy who took the ball every five days.
That kind of reliability matters, especially for a rotation trying to find its footing. Replacing his innings, even if they weren’t elite, is going to be tougher than it looks on paper.
Joe Musgrove is expected to return from Tommy John surgery, but that comes with its own set of question marks. He’s a proven arm when healthy, but there’s no telling how sharp he’ll be out of the gate. For a team already short on stability, Musgrove’s recovery timeline and effectiveness are critical variables.
Back-End Depth: Unproven and Unsettling
The lower half of the rotation doesn’t inspire much confidence either. JP Sears and Randy Vásquez are likely to slot into the fourth and fifth spots, and while both have shown flashes, neither has locked down consistent success at the big-league level. Sears, in particular, is intriguing - there’s a sense he could be on the verge of a breakout - but at this point, he’s still more of a fifth starter than a difference-maker.
This is where the Padres’ depth gets exposed. If injuries hit again, or if one of these arms falters, there’s not a lot of margin for error. The rotation isn’t built to withstand much turbulence.
The Bright Spot: Michael King’s Return
At the top of the rotation, there is a glimmer of hope. Michael King is back on a three-year deal and is projected for a strong season - think an fWAR over 3.0 and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
That’s frontline production if it holds. The challenge?
King missed half of 2025 due to injuries, and expecting him to immediately return to his 2024 form might be asking a bit much.
Still, if King can stay healthy and settle in early, he gives the Padres a legitimate No. 1. That’s a big “if,” but it’s one of the few areas where optimism feels warranted.
The Pivetta Puzzle
Perhaps the biggest wild card in this whole equation is Nick Pivetta. He was a revelation in 2025, posting a 2.87 ERA and finishing sixth in the National League Cy Young race. But projections for 2026 are far less kind - suggesting he could be over a full run worse per nine innings.
That’s a massive swing. If Pivetta regresses significantly, the ripple effect could be brutal. He was a stabilizing force last season, and without a repeat performance - or something close to it - the flaws in the rest of the rotation are going to stand out fast.
Final Thoughts
Look, projections aren’t destiny. Players outperform expectations all the time.
But when you look at this Padres rotation on paper, it’s clear they’re walking a tightrope. There’s talent, but it’s wrapped in question marks - health concerns, inconsistency, and a lack of proven depth.
If King and Pivetta can anchor the top, and Musgrove returns to form, the Padres might just surprise some people. But if those pieces don’t fall into place, 2026 could be a long season for a rotation that’s already on shaky ground.