The Padres head into another pivotal offseason with no shortage of questions, and the starting rotation is one of the biggest. San Diego has 17 potential free agents on the roster, and with president of baseball operations AJ Preller trying to keep the payroll in check while reshaping the club, the market for the group is starting to come into focus.
Spotrac’s contract projections offer a snapshot of what it might take to retain San Diego’s looming free-agent starters, and the list comes with plenty of moving parts. Some arms helped their case, some hurt it, and a few likely won’t be back at all.
Michael King sits near the top of the group after another strong year. He posted a 3.21 ERA, set career highs with a 4.3 bWAR and 185 innings, and then turned in a dominant postseason with a 0.64 ERA across 14 innings.
King also has a $28 million player option for 2027 and a $30 million option for 2028, but if he opts out - which appears likely - he would also be owed a $5 million buyout. The 31-year-old has made it clear he likes San Diego.
“San Diego’s been incredible for me, and it’s all the way across the country from home,” King said. “But now I feel like I have a second home on the West Coast, so it’s been awesome. And yeah, I hope to continue.”
Nick Pivetta’s first season with the Friars was a success before injuries interrupted it. He opened the year with four starts, then missed nearly five months because of elbow complications.
Even so, he finished strong, allowing only three earned runs over his final four regular-season starts, covering 18.2 innings, and he was steady in the postseason as San Diego won both games he started. Pivetta carries a $14 million club option, though Spotrac’s projected market value lands well above that.
Preller said the Padres are, "hoping [to] figure something out that makes him a part of this thing going forward.” It could wind up being cheaper to simply exercise the option.
The picture is much bleaker for several of the other names. The two-time Cy Young Award winner was brought in at the trade deadline, but his San Diego stint never matched the cost of the acquisition.
After posting a 3.08 ERA in 22 appearances with the San Francisco Giants, he finished with a 5.08 ERA in nine starts for the Padres. In the postseason, he gave up three earned runs in 3.2 innings.
The assumption is that he will land elsewhere.
Casey Mize followed a similar path after arriving at the deadline to help fix a rotation problem. He had been throwing well for the Detroit Tigers, carrying a 2.70 ERA over 16 starts after earning his first All-Star nod in 2025, but that form disappeared in San Diego.
He went 7.46 in 10 outings with the Padres. An ankle injury kept him out of postseason action, and a return seems unlikely given the price tag.
Kyle Canning’s season came in two very different parts. In his first 65 innings - a stretch that included 10 starts and four spot starts - he struggled to a 6.65 ERA. Then he shifted into relief and found his footing, putting up a 3.04 ERA over 14 appearances and becoming an important piece of the bullpen.
Lucas Giolito joined the team in mid-May to try to stabilize the rotation, but the results were rough before elbow inflammation ended his season. He posted a 5.16 ERA in seven appearances, totaling 29.2 innings, and his $8 million mutual option is not expected to be picked up, especially with a $1.5 million buyout attached.
Walker Buehler, meanwhile, remains the one possible return among the late-season and depth options. He made 32 starts for the Padres last year and even started a playoff game after joining on a minor league deal last offseason. Canning and Giolito, though, look destined for new uniforms next year after their struggles in San Diego.
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