Padres’ Fifth Rotation Spot Up for Grabs: Four Arms, One Opportunity in Spring Training
Baseball is back. Pitchers and catchers are reporting, the Arizona sun is shining, and for the San Diego Padres, the 2026 season begins with a high-stakes competition that could shape their rotation for months to come. While the top four starting spots are more or less locked in, the battle for the fifth is wide open - and four pitchers are set to duke it out in what could be one of the most compelling storylines of Padres camp.
The contenders? JP Sears, Triston McKenzie, Matt Waldron, and Marco Gonzales. Four very different arms, each with something to prove and a limited window to do it.
JP Sears: The Inside Track
If you’re looking for the early favorite, it’s JP Sears. The lefty arrived in San Diego last year via trade from Oakland, and while his 2025 season didn’t exactly go as planned - with a demotion not long after the move - there’s still a lot to like.
Sears has shown flashes of being a reliable big-league starter, and now he gets a full offseason and Spring Training under the guidance of pitching coach Ruben Niebla. That’s not nothing.
The key for Sears will be consistency. If he holds his ground this spring - doesn’t need to dominate, just avoid imploding - he’s got a real shot to open the season as the Padres’ fifth starter. His blend of command and poise on the mound gives him a slight edge, and if he can keep the ball in the park and the walks down, he might just run away with the job.
Triston McKenzie: High Ceiling, Big Question Marks
Of the four, Triston McKenzie might have the highest upside - and also the widest range of outcomes. The former top prospect has the stuff to be a frontline starter, but control issues have held him back. Still, he’s just 28, and with the right coaching and a strong spring, he could absolutely force his way into the rotation conversation.
McKenzie is the kind of pitcher who could either thrive with a change of scenery or end up in the bullpen if things don’t click. But if he shows enough in camp - especially in terms of command and pitch efficiency - the Padres may be tempted to give him a longer leash. He’s the wild card in this race, and sometimes, wild cards win.
Matt Waldron: Knuckleballer on the Brink
It’s been a rough stretch for Matt Waldron. After making 24 starts for the Padres in 2024, he stumbled hard in 2025, battling injuries and getting knocked around in Triple-A. A 6.67 ERA and a .309 batting average against in 18 starts at that level doesn’t exactly scream “rotation-ready.”
Waldron’s path back isn’t impossible, but it’s steep. He’ll need to outpitch at least two of the other contenders - and not by a little. The knuckleballer has shown he can eat innings when healthy, but the Padres will need to see a significant turnaround this spring to trust him with a rotation spot again.
Marco Gonzales: Veteran Long Shot
Then there’s Marco Gonzales, the veteran lefty trying to claw his way back into the league after missing all of 2025. He signed a minor league deal with San Diego and will turn 34 this month, but the bigger issue is health. Forearm problems sidelined him the year before, and his numbers were trending in the wrong direction even before that - opponents hit .282 and .312 against him in his last two seasons on the mound.
Gonzales brings experience and leadership, and maybe - just maybe - he finds a second wind. But right now, he’s a long shot to make the roster, let alone the rotation. Still, Spring Training is unpredictable, and stranger things have happened.
What’s at Stake
For the Padres, this isn’t just about filling a spot. It’s about depth, flexibility, and setting the tone early in a season where every game will matter. Whoever wins this job won’t just be the fifth starter - they’ll be expected to hold their own in a division that doesn’t offer much breathing room.
Sears has the inside track. McKenzie has the upside.
Waldron has the knuckleball and a point to prove. Gonzales has the experience - and a mountain to climb.
It’s early, but the battle lines are drawn. Let the competition begin.