As spring training draws near, the San Diego Padres are stepping into 2026 with more questions than answers-and a lineup that reflects a franchise in transition.
After a relatively quiet offseason, the Padres' roster is beginning to take shape. But the early projections for Opening Day paint a picture that’s hard to ignore: a top-heavy batting order with a steep drop-off in the back half. For a team that’s seen its share of high expectations in recent years, this version of the Padres feels more like a reset than a reload.
A Front Four with Firepower
Let’s start with the good news. The top of the lineup still brings some legitimate punch.
Fernando Tatis Jr. remains the face of the franchise-an electric talent capable of changing games with a single swing or a daring dash on the basepaths. Manny Machado, the veteran anchor, continues to provide a steady presence in the heart of the order.
Jackson Merrill, one of the more intriguing young pieces in the organization, is expected to take on a larger role this season, and Ramón Laureano adds a layer of grit and athleticism to the mix.
Even with the departure of Luis Arráez-who signed a one-year, $12 million deal with the division-rival Giants-the top four still have the potential to do damage. Arráez’s bat-to-ball skills and ability to set the table will be missed, no doubt, but the core remains intact enough to keep the Padres competitive early in games.
The Back Half? That’s Where It Gets Dicey
The concern starts right after that top four. The projected bottom five of the lineup-Miguel Andújar, Gavin Sheets, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, and Freddy Fermin-raises some red flags. This group, as it stands, doesn’t strike fear into opposing pitchers.
Andújar and Sheets have shown flashes in the past, but consistency has eluded them. Bogaerts and Cronenworth, both under sizable contracts, are coming off seasons where their production didn’t quite match their paychecks. And Fermin, while solid defensively, isn’t expected to carry much weight with the bat.
This imbalance in the lineup could create real problems for the Padres in 2026. Opposing teams will likely game-plan around the top four, knowing they can navigate the bottom half with far less resistance. That’s a tough way to win consistently, especially in a division that doesn’t offer much room for error.
A Year of Transition
Let’s be clear: this isn’t a team in full rebuild mode, but it’s also not one that’s pushing all its chips in. The Padres lost key pieces this winter-not just players, but also their manager-and they didn’t have the financial flexibility or prospect capital to make major upgrades.
A.J. Preller, the president of baseball operations, was working with constraints that limited his ability to reshape the roster.
So where does that leave San Diego? Somewhere in the middle.
This feels like a bridge year-an opportunity to evaluate young talent, manage the payroll, and prepare for a more aggressive push in the future. Expectations are murky, and that might actually work in the Padres’ favor.
With less pressure and fewer headlines, they could find a rhythm and surprise some people.
Still, if they’re going to stay relevant in the NL West, they’ll need more than just a strong front four. Depth matters over the course of a 162-game grind, and right now, the Padres are thin in that department.
Whether they can hang with the likes of the Dodgers or even keep pace with the Giants remains to be seen. But one thing’s for sure: the Padres' 2026 season is going to be a test-not just of talent, but of patience, planning, and the ability to navigate a challenging transition without losing the plot.