Tarik Skubal Just Changed the Arbitration Game - and the Padres Are Paying Attention
For a decade now, A.J. Preller has run arbitration season in San Diego like a no-drama zone.
Settle early, skip the hearing room, keep the clubhouse happy - that’s been the Padres’ way under Preller. It’s not just about avoiding bad optics; it’s about maintaining trust and control.
And until now, that strategy has worked like clockwork.
But then came Tarik Skubal.
On February 5, Skubal walked into an arbitration hearing and walked out with a record-setting $32 million salary for 2026. The Tigers had filed at $19 million.
The panel had to choose one number, not split the difference - and they chose Skubal's. That’s not just a win.
That’s a seismic shift.
What Skubal’s Win Really Means
This wasn’t just about one pitcher getting paid. Skubal’s case cracked open a door that front offices have been trying to keep firmly shut.
He and agent Scott Boras used a little-known rule that gives players with over five years of service time the right to compare themselves to any MLB salary - not just those of fellow arbitration-eligible players. That means comps like Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, and Gerrit Cole were suddenly in play.
The result? A salary that looks a whole lot more like free agency than arbitration. And that’s the part that should make GMs around the league sit up straight.
Because if arbitration starts acting like a mini free agency for top-tier talent, the old rules - the ones teams have relied on to manage costs - might not mean much anymore.
Why the Padres Should Be Watching Closely
Now let’s bring it back to San Diego. The Padres once again avoided the hearing room this offseason.
That makes it 10 years and counting without an arbitration case going to a panel under Preller. The last time it happened?
Andrew Cashner, way back in the pre-2014 era.
That’s not just a fun front-office stat. It’s a deliberate strategy. And Skubal’s win is exactly the kind of scenario Preller has been trying to avoid - one hearing that blows up your payroll in a single afternoon.
But here’s the thing: avoiding hearings is getting trickier, especially with rising stars and evolving arbitration tactics.
Enter Mason Miller
Mason Miller is one name that should be circled in bold on the Padres’ radar. His 2026 arbitration number came in at a manageable $4 million, and he’s under team control through 2029 thanks to Super Two status. But if Miller keeps pitching like the electric, must-watch force we’ve seen, that number won’t stay low for long.
Skubal’s case is the warning shot. If a player starts trending toward Cy Young territory, arbitration might not care about your internal budget ceilings or historical comps. The process is starting to reward performance with something much closer to real-market value - and fast.
That puts pressure on teams to get ahead of the curve.
The Real Challenge for Preller
So the question isn’t just whether Preller can keep his perfect record intact. It’s whether the Padres can continue to buy peace early - before a hearing forces their hand and sends the payroll spinning.
Skubal’s win didn’t just set a new salary record. It set a new tone.
For the Padres, and every other team with rising stars and tight budgets, the message is clear: arbitration is evolving. And if you’re not ready to evolve with it, you might end up paying for it - literally.