The Cubs don’t have the luxury of easing into Wednesday night. After getting bludgeoned 8-0 by the Padres in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card round, they’re staring at a must-win game and a very short window to fix everything that went wrong.
Craig Counsell is handing the ball to Kevin Gausman, and that choice makes sense for a team that needs a steady arm in a volatile spot. Gausman is only one year removed from a strong postseason run with the Toronto Blue Jays, where he repeatedly came through and helped push his club to the World Series. Chicago is hoping that version shows up now.
The regular season gave the Cubs plenty to like, but Gausman’s year has come with its share of turbulence. The rotation’s home run problem has touched him too, and he has allowed eight homers in his last five starts.
Even so, there are signs he may be lining up at the right time. He’s given up just two earned runs in each of his last two outings, and across those 11.1 innings he punched out 13 batters.
Since joining Chicago, his strikeout rate has climbed, and his walk rate sits at a very solid 6.3 percent.
There is one complication hanging over all of that: Gausman’s left shoulder. He’s only days removed from hurting it, though he did make a fantastic play at third base against the Marlins when he dove to catch a runner sliding into first.
The issue wasn’t serious enough to send him to the IL, but the Cubs can’t afford even a hint that he’s not at full strength. If he looks off early, Counsell may need to act quickly.
Chicago also needs its biggest names to look like it. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Game 1 line was hard to ignore, even if it comes against the backdrop of the best regular season in franchise history.
Alex Bregman’s 0-for-4 night was another rough swing back toward reality after his late-season surge, which included two home runs against his former team, the Boston Red Sox. Neither player is being asked to carry the whole lineup, but this is exactly the stage where stars are supposed to steady the room.
San Diego showed what that looks like right away. Fernando Tatis Jr. launched the first pitch of the game over the wall, Manny Machado followed by crushing the second pitch he saw, and both finished with two hits.
Xander Bogaerts added an RBI of his own. Those are the kinds of names that change a game before it settles in.
The Cubs can’t afford another night where they wait forever to get going. They didn’t record a hit until the seventh inning in Game 1, and that kind of start can snowball fast in October.
The pitching gap may be just as important as the lineup concerns. Michael King worked 7.0 innings in the opener, which allowed the Padres to use only two relievers.
That leaves San Diego with a very fresh bullpen for a potential clincher, and Mason Miller is sitting there too. On top of that, the Padres’ bullpen owns the 5th-best ERA in baseball and has struck out the second-most batters.
That’s a tough setup for a Cubs offense that can grind at-bats and avoid strikeouts. But against a rested bullpen like this one, even that strength becomes harder to lean on. Chicago has to answer fast, or its season ends with far less drama than anyone in the building expected.
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What makes this series interesting is that the Brewers are leaning on a staff that can smother an opponent, while the Padres are coming in with the kind of recent form that can travel in October. Milwaukees arms are the obvious headline, but San Diegos offense has already shown it can get hot at the right time, which is exactly the sort of threat that can complicate a series that looks straightforward until the first few innings unfold. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Could Help Decide A Wild Card Mess MLB Created
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For a Padres team with its own October path still in view, the ripple effects are hard to miss. MLB has floated two possible start times for Braves-Phillies, 2:15 p.m. ET or 8:15 p.m. ET, and the winner will move on to face the Dodgers in the NL Division Round beginning Oct. 3. Until the other playoff results settle the schedule, the league has left one of the most important games on the board hanging in the balance. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Owners Already Face A Harsh Test In San Diego
Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones arrived with the kind of ambition Padres fans want to hear, making clear that their goal is a World Series title. The timing is encouraging, too, with San Diego fresh off a wild-card sweep of the Cubs and carrying one of the more energized home crowds in the sport after topping 3 million fans in the 2023 regular season.
Still, the job in front of the new ownership group is not only about sustaining momentum on the field. An anonymous general manager has already raised concerns about the financial strain created by the clubs big payroll commitments to key players, which adds an immediate layer of pressure to the transition. Feliciano has framed those obligations as opportunities, but how the Padres balance that view against the realities of the market may become one of the first defining tests of the new era. [Read more 🡒]