The San Diego Padres came into this offseason with more questions than answers, and unfortunately for the Friar faithful, many of those questions remain unanswered as spring training looms. A handful of key contributors from last season - including Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez, and Ryan O’Hearn - are now gone, and the front office hasn’t exactly countered with splashy replacements.
Yes, they locked in Michael King, which helps stabilize part of the rotation, but the loss of Cease looms large - especially with Yu Darvish already ruled out for the 2026 season. That’s a one-two punch of absences that would challenge even the deepest of pitching staffs.
And right now, San Diego’s rotation is anything but deep.
Rotation Taking Shape - Kind Of
As it stands, King and Nick Pivetta are expected to headline the rotation. That’s a solid, if unspectacular, top two.
Joe Musgrove is projected to slot in behind them, and while he’s a proven arm when healthy, he’s coming off a full season missed due to Tommy John surgery. That adds a layer of uncertainty to an already fragile group.
From there, things get murky. Randy Vasquez and JP Sears are in the mix for the back end of the rotation, but neither comes with a guaranteed role. The Padres could still explore what’s left on the free-agent market - names like Zac Gallen and Chris Bassitt remain unsigned - but with limited movement so far, the team may instead turn inward for help.
Enter Miguel Mendez
One name generating quiet buzz this offseason is 23-year-old right-hander Miguel Mendez. He was added to the 40-man roster after a breakout 2025 campaign that saw him climb from Single-A to Double-A, finishing with an 8-7 record and a 3.22 ERA over 95 innings. While those numbers don’t scream “ace,” the tools are what have the Padres intrigued.
Mendez brings a fastball that sits in the 95-98 mph range and pairs it with a mid-80s slider that’s already drawing “plus” grades from evaluators. That kind of velocity and movement gives him a real shot to compete for a rotation spot - especially if he shows polish and poise during spring training.
He may not have big-league experience, but he’s got the kind of raw stuff that can play at the next level. If he puts together a strong spring, don’t be surprised if he leapfrogs some of the more seasoned options and earns a look early in the season.
What’s Next for the Padres?
The front office is clearly betting on internal development and some good fortune to fill the gaps left by a quiet offseason. That’s a risky approach, especially in a division that doesn’t offer much margin for error. But it also opens the door for young arms like Mendez to make their mark.
Spring training will be telling. If Mendez can command the zone and show he’s ready to handle big-league hitters, the Padres may have found a much-needed boost from within. And in a year where reinforcements are hard to come by, that could be the difference between staying competitive and falling behind early.
The Padres’ rotation might be a work in progress, but keep an eye on Mendez. He’s got the stuff, and now he’s got the opportunity.