The Padres thought they were buying stability when they swung their deadline deal for Casey Mize. Instead, they got a rough stretch that only deepened the questions around a rotation that had already been under the microscope.
San Diego entered the deadline four games above .500 and fresh off winning eight of its previous nine games. The bullpen was steady, the offense was beginning to wake up, and the starting staff was still the obvious problem. That’s what pushed the Padres to move southpaws Kash Mayfield, then the No. 2 prospect in the system, and Jackson Wolf to the Detroit Tigers for Mize and infielder/outfielder Gage Workman.
The fit looked reasonable on paper. Mize was 29 and had just put together his first All-Star season in 2025, then followed it with a stronger 2026 campaign for Detroit, posting a 2.70 ERA across 16 starts before the trade. But none of that carried over once he landed in San Diego.
Over 10 starts with the Padres, Mize finished with a 7.46 ERA and a negative-1.3 bWAR, a steep drop from the 2.6 bWAR he had before the deal. He gave up 37 earned runs in 44.2 innings, and his third outing was one of only two wins he recorded in a Padres uniform. It was also the only start in which he didn’t allow an earned run.
The velocity dip didn’t help matters. His average fastball was about 1.3 mph slower than it had been the year before.
Then came the right ankle sprain before the postseason, which sent him to the injured list and ended a Padres stint that never got off the ground. There was no guarantee his 10 starts would have earned him a place in October anyway.
Now the market may give him a chance to rebuild. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported that Mize could be in line for a one-year, $15 million deal as a way to reset his value. That would be a major jump from the $1.8 million he made last season to avoid arbitration.
For Mize, a short-term deal could make sense if he’s chasing something bigger down the road. A one-year prove-it contract would give him a shot to wash away the damage from a second half that went sideways in 2026 and get back toward the long-term money he’s likely after as he moves into what should be the prime of his career.
Whether that next deal comes from San Diego is another question. A reunion in 2027 feels unlikely right now, but the Padres’ rotation situation could look different by the time winter rolls around. And if Mize is willing to take a discount and rediscover the form that made him an All-Star, a return to pinstripes might not be out of the picture.
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Among the names on the move is Johnson, who logged 134 MLB games for the Padres and had become one of the more familiar holdovers in the organization. The rest of the list includes players who spent the 2026 season at various minor league levels, which is the part that matters most for a club like San Diego, where every bit of upper-level depth can end up relevant before long. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Prospect Kannon Kemp Suddenly Faces A Tough Development Question
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Tatis Just Gave Padres Fans A New Debate About His Value
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The unusual split only adds to the intrigue, because Tatis is now up against a deep field of contenders at both spots and could put himself in Padres record territory if he comes away with one or both awards. For a player whose value has always sparked debate, the nomination underscores how much his versatility has mattered to San Diego this season. The only question left is whether the voters will reward him in one role, both, or leave the Padres waiting to see how the final tally shakes out. [Read more 🡒]