Padres Miss Out on Framber Valdez - and the Rotation Gap Just Got Real
The Padres didn’t just lose out on Framber Valdez - they missed a chance to patch the exact hole that’s been quietly widening in their rotation all offseason. Valdez is heading to Detroit on a three-year, $115 million deal, and while the Tigers’ decision to hand out that kind of money while locked in arbitration drama with Tarik Skubal might raise a few eyebrows, that’s not San Diego’s concern. The Padres’ issue is much more straightforward: they needed a reliable, innings-eating lefty to stabilize a fragile rotation, and the market just told them what that costs.
The Price of Stability
Valdez’s deal - over $38 million annually - is the kind of number San Diego has been signaling all winter they simply can’t touch. And that’s the sting. Because while the Padres aren’t lacking arms entirely, they’re lacking that kind of arm - the one who shows up every fifth day and gives your bullpen a breather, your manager some peace of mind, and your season a little more breathing room.
Right now, the projected rotation is Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vásquez, and JP Sears. That’s not a disaster.
There’s talent there. But there’s also a whole lot of “if.”
If King can stretch out into a full-season starter. If Pivetta can hold down a mid-rotation role consistently.
If Musgrove stays healthy. If Vásquez and Sears can avoid sophomore slumps or growing pains.
It’s a rotation built on upside - and risk.
No Room for Error
That’s what makes the Valdez miss feel so sharp. Vlad Sedler (RotoGut) didn’t mince words when he said, “There is no team that needs to sign Framber Valdez more than the San Diego Padres.”
It’s hard to argue with that. When your rotation needs bounce-backs, health breaks, and backend guys to punch above their weight, the best insurance policy is a workhorse who’s been there, done that, and still has the stuff to do it again.
Valdez is exactly that. He’s been one of the most dependable starters in baseball in recent years - a 13-11 record with a 3.66 ERA over 192 innings and 187 strikeouts in 2025 tells the story.
But it’s not just the stat line - it’s the way he gets it done. He keeps the ball on the ground, limits damage, and gives his team a chance almost every time out.
That’s the kind of presence that changes the tone of a pitching staff.
The Tightrope Walk Begins
The Padres didn’t lose out on Valdez because they weren’t interested - they lost out because they couldn’t (or wouldn’t) meet the price. And now, the rotation feels less like a plan and more like a high-wire act.
There’s still potential for things to click. But there’s also no safety net if they don’t.
And that’s the bigger takeaway here. It’s not about one missed free agent.
It’s about what the miss reveals. The Padres needed a stabilizer, and the market showed them - and everyone else - exactly what that costs.
Whether they can find another answer, at a different price, remains to be seen. But for now, San Diego’s pitching staff is walking a fine line.