Michael King’s next contract conversation may be starting earlier than anyone in San Diego wanted.
CBS Sports has already put together an early forecast for the 2026-27 free-agent class, and King shows up near the top of it at No. 6.
The Astros and Cardinals were named as possible landing spots, though that’s all it is at this stage: a projection. Neither club has publicly shown interest, and King has not said he plans to leave the Padres.
Still, the forecast points to the kind of market waiting for him if he does reach free agency. King can choose a $28 million salary for 2027 or take a $5 million buyout and test the open market.
He also has a $30 million player option for 2028. Walking away from that kind of security would be a big decision, but his season has given him a real reason to think about it.
Through 31 starts, King owns a 3.03 ERA, production that would stand out in almost any offseason and looks even stronger in a class short on frontline starters. The Padres, in the meantime, are watching a pitcher they once had on a clear escape hatch start to outgrow it.
Houston is the easier fit to explain.
The Astros have already had to use 18 starting pitchers in an injury-heavy season, and their rotation currently sits 27th in the majors with a 4.87 ERA. They still expect to matter in October, and Hunter Brown gives them an ace.
After that, the picture gets messy fast, with injuries and stopgap arms filling too many innings. King would bring a starter who has handled a full season and already has postseason experience.
He would also come without the extra cost that can scare teams away. King rejected a qualifying offer before re-signing with San Diego, which means he cannot receive another one. Any team that signs him would be paying only the contract itself, with no draft-pick compensation attached.
St. Louis is a different kind of possibility.
The Cardinals need more swing-and-miss in a 2027 rotation that doesn’t currently have enough of it. Hunter Dobbins’ second Tommy John surgery took one potential starter out of the picture, and the club’s current rotation options have been good for innings but not enough strikeout punch. Their own 2027 outlook pointed to the need for more strikeout ability, while some of their best pitching prospects may be more impactful in 2028 than in 2027.
King would change that immediately. The issue, as with most things in St.
Louis, is the price tag. The Cardinals’ outlook suggested they were unlikely to shop at the top of the pitching market, so the CBS link feels more like a baseball fit than a spending forecast.
And the broader point is bigger than just Houston and St. Louis.
King has moved beyond the kind of pitcher a team can easily pin down with a simple contract decision. His health, performance and contract structure have given him leverage, and plenty of contending clubs will be watching.
CBS’s list also included two more Padres pitchers, with Adrián Morejón at No. 3 and Casey Mize at No. 9. That leaves San Diego with three pitchers in the projected top 10 of the same free-agent forecast.
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