Yuki Matsui is looking like the Padres’ breakout reliever at exactly the right moment.
A year ago, plenty of fans were still asking whether the five-year deal was too much. Matsui had settled into an elite bullpen, sure, but he was getting buried in the noise around bigger names. And after finishing his second full season with an ERA just under 4.00, the overall return felt underwhelming.
Now the picture looks very different. The 30-year-old is in his third full MLB season, and he’s pitching like a reliever who has finally unlocked the best version of himself.
That matters for San Diego because the bullpen has needed it. Two-time All-Star Robert Suarez is now with the Atlanta Braves, and Jason Adam has spent more time on the injured list than in the bullpen. In that setting, Matsui’s rise has landed right when the Padres needed it most.
The biggest reason is the slider.
Entering Tuesday night, Matsui owned a 1.98 ERA and a league-best .169 expected batting average in 2026. He has always leaned on a strong splitter, but hitters had enough of a read on it before. This year, the added slider usage has changed the shape of his whole arsenal.
In 2024, Matsui threw his slider 27.1% of the time. Last year, that number dropped to 15.9%.
This season, he has pushed it all the way up to 30.3%, and the pitch has been a problem for opponents. They’re whiffing on 38.2% of those sliders, and when they do put one in play, it tends to turn into a weak grounder.
The slider isn’t just helping on its own, either. It has made the splitter even tougher to handle.
Matsui’s splitter has a 46.8 whiff rate, a tick better than it was in the previous two seasons. Hitters are being forced to guess whether the ball is going to move horizontally or vertically, and that uncertainty is working in his favor.
The numbers back up the turnaround. Matsui is in the 97th percentile in whiff rate and the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate, two areas that were far less kind to him in 2024 and 2025.
And because of that, the losses of Adam and Suarez haven’t stung nearly as much as they might have. That doesn’t take anything away from Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón, Wandy Peralta, or Bradgley Rodriguez, who have all been terrific. But the question hanging over Matsui entering the season was whether he would take a step forward.
He has answered it.
In Other News...
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Padres Loss Revived A Frustrating Question Fans Know Too Well
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Padres Suddenly Have A Real October Rotation Decision
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Nick Pivettas return from injury has only sharpened the conversation. He has put together two strong starts, kept the walks off the board and limited damage, which gives the Padres another legitimate option at a time when postseason rotation choices also have to account for bullpen management. With both pitchers making cases in different ways, San Diego suddenly has to decide not just who starts in October, but how much it wants to value recent form versus the broader shape of its pitching staff. [Read more 🡒]