The Padres have turned their season around the hard way, and the biggest reason is sitting in the middle of the lineup. San Diego, which spent much of the year stuck in the National League middle class, is now one game clear of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot at 72-62.
Since the All-Star break, the Padres have gone 24-14. That .631 winning percentage is second-best in baseball over that stretch, and it has given them a real shot to stay in the race down the stretch.
The pitching additions at the deadline helped stabilize things a bit, with Robbie Ray and Casey Mize giving the rotation more legitimacy. But the real jolt has come from the bats.
This was a team that looked lost at the plate in the first half, with multiple stars going quiet at the same time. As recently as July 4, San Diego was underwater by two games, and the offense was a major reason why.
That script has flipped in the second half. Over the last 30 days, the Padres have posted a top-five OPS and on-base percentage, and they rank seventh in runs. It’s been a collective surge, but three names stand above the rest as the biggest second-half risers: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Luis Rengifo.
Rengifo may not carry the same star power as the other two, but no one in baseball has made a bigger second-half leap. His 140 wRC+ after the break is 89 points better than his first-half mark.
He was struggling so badly earlier in the year that the Milwaukee Brewers released him in June. Now he’s one of the main reasons San Diego is in position to play in October.
Merrill’s turnaround has been just as important. He finished the first half with a .628 OPS, but a strong July has pushed him back toward the All-Star level production the Padres were expecting. His wRC+ has climbed 50 points since the break, which ranks as the eighth-best improvement in baseball.
Then there’s Tatis Jr., whose first half was defined by a lack of power. He didn’t hit his first home run until May 30.
Even with that slow start, he was still slightly above league average overall. Since the All-Star break, though, his 185 wRC+ has completely changed the shape of the Padres’ offense.
El Niño has kept getting stronger month by month, and if that trend holds, San Diego’s ceiling in October gets a lot higher.
Put it all together, and the Padres suddenly look like a different team than they did a couple of months ago. The rotation got a boost, the offense found its rhythm, and the club has climbed into the postseason picture.
There’s still a month to go, but San Diego has improved with each passing month. Knock on wood, but I don’t see why September should be any different.
In Other News...
Yu Darvish Just Reopened A Big Padres Rotation Question
Yu Darvish is back on the mound in a limited way, moving into light bullpen sessions as he continues his recovery from internal brace surgery on his right elbow. It is a meaningful step for a Padres rotation that has spent plenty of time wondering what the future looks like around one of its most experienced starters, especially with Darvish still under contract for two more years.
Darvish has not promised a comeback this season, and the rehab process will ultimately decide the timing. Even so, the fact that his work is on schedule keeps next year in play and gives San Diego another important layer to follow as it sorts through the rotation picture. He has also pushed back on offseason retirement talk, saying his next move will depend on how the rehab unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Just Took A Bullpen Hit They Cant Afford Right Now
The Padres bullpen took another hit Monday when they put right-hander Jeremiah Estrada on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder impingement, a move retroactive to Aug. 25. To fill the roster spot, San Diego recalled right-hander David Morgan from Triple-A El Paso, a reminder of how quickly relief depth can get tested this time of year.
Estrada has already been through a stop-start season, having missed time earlier with right elbow tendinitis and right knee inflammation, and the Padres still have not offered a timetable for when he might come back. For a club leaning hard on its pitching staff, losing another late-inning arm now only adds to the pressure on a bullpen that can least afford another extended absence. [Read more 🡒]
Padres Ownership Already Faces A Long Term Test Fans Will Feel
The Padres long-running push for immediate help at the big league level has left them with one of baseballs thinnest pipelines, and the consequences are still showing up in the farm-system rankings. San Diego has finished last in MLBs prospect evaluations for three straight cycles, with Ethan Salas as the lone player in the Top 100, a stark reminder of how often the club has moved premium young talent in exchange for established major league pieces.
New ownership has promised a more patient approach, especially when it comes to scouting and player development, and there is some optimism around the 2026 draft class. Still, the Padres are not exactly stepping away from their win-now identity, which leaves the front office trying to keep the big-league roster competitive while also repairing the long-term foundation underneath it. For fans, the real test may be whether those two goals can finally start to align. [Read more 🡒]